IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v9y2019i3p2158244019876275.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Exchange Market Pressure

Author

Listed:
  • Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun
  • Godwin Olasehinde-Williams
  • Hasan Güngör

Abstract

Capturing changes in foreign reserves and exchange rates through the exchange market pressure, this article investigates whether economic policy uncertainty plays any role in exchange market pressure movements while controlling for the effects of domestic and external factors. A panel of 20 countries was examined from 2003Q1 to 2017Q4 using panel techniques that are consistent in the presence of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The study finds that a long-run relationship exists between exchange market pressure and economic policy uncertainty. Our estimation results reveal that a rise in economic policy uncertainty, consumer price index, trade openness, and financial openness increases the severity of the exchange market pressure in the long run. However, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, domestic credit, and foreign direct investment inflows can cushion the effect of the pressure. Therefore, irrespective of whether a country operates fixed, flexible, or intermediate exchange rate regime, its foreign exchange market is still significantly affected by economic policy uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Hasan Güngör, 2019. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Exchange Market Pressure," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:9:y:2019:i:3:p:2158244019876275
    DOI: 10.1177/2158244019876275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2158244019876275
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/2158244019876275?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee & Vladyslav Sushko, 2012. "From the Great Moderation to the Global Crisis: Exchange Market Pressure in the 2000s," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 597-621, September.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
    3. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Binici, Mahir, 2016. "Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 65-87.
    5. Hegerty, Scott W., 2012. "Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 506-521.
    6. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
    7. Feldkircher, Martin & Horvath, Roman & Rusnak, Marek, 2014. "Exchange market pressures during the financial crisis: A Bayesian model averaging evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-41.
    8. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    10. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
    11. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    12. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    13. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    15. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    16. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, December.
    17. VAN POECK, André & VANNESTE, Jacques & VEINER, Maret, "undated". "Exchange rate regimes and exchange market pressure in the new EU member countries," Working Papers 2005015, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    18. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Hasan Güngör & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams, 2019. "Unraveling the Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure in BRIC Countries: Evidence From Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(2), pages 21582440198, June.
    19. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-167, June.
    21. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Gloria Sarmiento, 2018. "Sovereign risk and the real exchange rate: A non-linear approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 1-14.
    22. Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
    23. Francis Teal & Markus Eberhardt, 2010. "Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production," Economics Series Working Papers 515, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
    25. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    26. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
    27. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-79, February.
    29. Akram, Gilal Muhammad & Byrne, Joseph P., 2015. "Foreign exchange market pressure and capital controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-53.
    30. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael M., 2012. "Exchange market pressure and absorption by international reserves: Emerging markets and fear of reserve loss during the 2008–2009 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1076-1091.
    31. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    32. Hakkio, Craig S & Pearce, Douglas K, 1985. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates to Economic News," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(4), pages 621-636, October.
    33. Yin DAI & Jing-wen ZHANG & Xiu-zhen YU & Xin LI, 2017. "Causality between economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate in China with considering quantile differences," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(612), A), pages 29-38, Autumn.
    34. Balassa, Bela, 1975. "Reforming the system of incentives in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 365-382, June.
    35. ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
    36. Philippe Mueller & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Andrea Vedolin, 2017. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    37. Swamy, P A V B, 1970. "Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 311-323, March.
    38. Robert Krol, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 241-256, June.
    39. Salih Turan Katircioglu & Mete Feridun, 2011. "Do macroeconomic fundamentals affect exchange market pressure? Evidence from bounds testing approach for Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 295-300.
    40. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    41. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:45:y:2007:i::p:459-485 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.
    43. Kido, Yosuke, 2016. "On the link between the US economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 49-52.
    44. Pentecost, Eric J. & Van Hooydonk, Charlotte & Van Poeck, Andre, 2001. "Measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 401-418, June.
    45. Karnizova, Lilia & Li, Jiaxiong (Chris), 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial markets and probability of US recessions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 261-265.
    46. William R. White, 2006. "Is price stability enough?," BIS Working Papers 205, Bank for International Settlements.
    47. Panday, Anjan, 2015. "Impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: The case of Nepal," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-71.
    48. André Van Poeck & Jacques Vanneste & Maret Veiner, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Exchange Market Pressure in the New EU Member States," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 459-485, June.
    49. Eberhardt, Markus & Bond, Stephen, 2009. "Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator," MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Bautista, Carlos C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange market pressure: The case of the Philippines," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 153-168, March.
    51. Clara GARCÍA & Nuria MALET, 2007. "Exchange Market Pressure, Monetary Policy, And Economic Growth: Argentina, 1993–2004," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 45(3), pages 253-282, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wen, Jun & Khalid, Samia & Mahmood, Hamid & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on food prices in China: A new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Li, Jiachen & Li, Hao & Shang, Xianfa & Pu, Yang & Zhang, Mengtian & Pan, Xingchen, 2024. "Exploring the impact of fintech, human capital, mineral policy, and institutional quality on poverty traps: Evidence from resource-dependent economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin & Özkan, Oktay, 2023. "Geopolitical oil price uncertainty transmission into core inflation: Evidence from two of the biggest global players," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Adedokun Adeniyi J. & Falayi Olabusuyi R. & Adeyemi Francis O. & Kumeka Terver T., 2022. "Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Management in Africa: A Panel Study," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 161-184, September.
    5. MARKOVIĆ Milan & MARJANOVIĆ Ivana, 2022. "Vulnerability To The Currency Crisis: The Case Of Serbia," Management of Sustainable Development, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 17-21, December.
    6. Ding Chen & Umar Muhammad Gummi & Shanbing Lu & Adamu Hassan, 2024. "Oil price, economic policy uncertainty and food prices in oil-exporting and oil-importing developing economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    8. Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Oktay Özkan, 2022. "Is interest rate uncertainty a predictor of investment volatility? evidence from the wild bootstrap likelihood ratio approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 507-521, July.
    9. Christian Balcells, 2022. "Determinants of firm boundaries and organizational performance: an empirical investigation of the Chilean truck market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 423-461, April.
    10. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    11. Terver Theophilus Kumeka & Olabusuyi Rufus Falayi & Adeniyi Jimmy Adedokun & Francis Olayinka Adeyemi, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in Nigeria: a quantile regression analysis," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2), pages 135-166.
    12. Fadekemi Chidinma Adeloye & Olayinka Olawoyin & Chinaemerem Daniel, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Markets in the United State," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(6), pages 998-1016, June.
    13. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Elian, Mohammad I., 2021. "Analyzing the (a)symmetric impacts of oil price, economic policy uncertainty, and global geopolitical risk on exchange rate," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin, 2020. "Insurance and economic policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Hasan Güngör & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams, 2019. "Unraveling the Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure in BRIC Countries: Evidence From Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(2), pages 21582440198, June.
    2. Terver Theophilus Kumeka & Olabusuyi Rufus Falayi & Adeniyi Jimmy Adedokun & Francis Olayinka Adeyemi, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in Nigeria: a quantile regression analysis," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2), pages 135-166.
    3. Aftab, Muhammad & Phylaktis, Kate, 2022. "Economic integration and exchange market pressure in a policy uncertain world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Terver T. Kumeka & Olabusuyi R. Falayi & Adeniyi J. Adedokun & Francis O. Adeyemi, 2022. "An econometric analysis of economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure of the three largest economies in West Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-33, November.
    5. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    6. Peñasco, Cristina & del Río, Pablo & Romero-Jordán, Desiderio, 2017. "Gas and electricity demand in Spanish manufacturing industries: An analysis using homogeneous and heterogeneous estimators," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-60.
    7. Adedokun Adeniyi J. & Falayi Olabusuyi R. & Adeyemi Francis O. & Kumeka Terver T., 2022. "Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Management in Africa: A Panel Study," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 161-184, September.
    8. Alvarado, Rafael & Tillaguango, Brayan & Murshed, Muntasir & Ochoa-Moreno, Santiago & Rehman, Abdul & Işık, Cem & Alvarado-Espejo, Johana, 2022. "Impact of the informal economy on the ecological footprint: The role of urban concentration and globalization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 750-767.
    9. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Andrew Adewale Alola & Glory Chiyoru Dike & Uju Violet Alola, 2022. "The Role of Legal System and Socioeconomic Aspects in the Environmental Quality Drive of the Global South," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 953-972, September.
    11. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Bilal Hussain & Ashfaq Ahmad Shah & Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq & Muhammad Usman, 2022. "Influence of Economic Growth, Energy Production, and Subcomponents on the Environment: A Regional Level Analytical Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Sook-Rei Tan & Wei-Siang Wang & Wai-Mun Chia, 2021. "International Capital Flows and Extreme Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 479-506, July.
    13. Dong, Kangyin & Hochman, Gal & Zhang, Yaqing & Sun, Renjin & Li, Hui & Liao, Hua, 2018. "CO2 emissions, economic and population growth, and renewable energy: Empirical evidence across regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 180-192.
    14. Ufuk Bingöl & Fatih Ayhan, 2020. "The Impact of NEET and Labor Market Indicators on Human Development: A Panel Data Analysis for EU-28 Countries," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(79), pages 441-468, December.
    15. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    16. Usman, Muhammad & Makhdum, Muhammad Sohail Amjad, 2021. "What abates ecological footprint in BRICS-T region? Exploring the influence of renewable energy, non-renewable energy, agriculture, forest area and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 12-28.
    17. Li, Xuelin & Yang, Lin, 2023. "Natural resources, remittances and carbon emissions: A Dutch Disease perspective with remittances for South Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    18. Topcu, Mert & Payne, James E., 2018. "Further evidence on the trade-energy consumption nexus in OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 160-165.
    19. Ernesto R. Gantman & Marcelo P. Dabós, 2018. "Does trade openness influence the real effective exchange rate? New evidence from panel time-series," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 91-113, March.
    20. Obobisa, Emma Serwaa, 2022. "Achieving 1.5 °C and net-zero emissions target: The role of renewable energy and financial development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 967-985.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:9:y:2019:i:3:p:2158244019876275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.