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Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation

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  • Mete Feridun

Abstract

This paper investigates the hypothesis that there is a causal relation between speculative pressure and real exchange rate overvaluation, banking-sector fragility, and the level of international reserves in Turkey. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing procedure and Granger causality within vector error-correction models (VECM) are applied to the period after the liberalization of capital flows (August 1989-August 2006). The results of the ARDL bounds test support the theory that exchange market pressure is in a long-run equilibrium relation with the three hypothesized variables over the sample period. On the other hand, the results of the short-run and long-run Granger causality tests indicate the existence of Granger causality running from the three variables to exchange market pressure. The findings further suggest that a feedback relation exists between banking-sector fragility and exchange market pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Mete Feridun, 2009. "Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: An Econometric Investigation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 65-81, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:45:y:2009:i:2:p:65-81
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    Cited by:

    1. Lazăr, Dorina & Todea, Alexandru & Filip, Diana, 2012. "Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 338-350.
    2. Hegerty, Scott W., 2012. "Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 506-521.
    3. Salih Turan Katircioglu & Mete Feridun, 2011. "Do macroeconomic fundamentals affect exchange market pressure? Evidence from bounds testing approach for Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 295-300.
    4. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Hasan Güngör, 2019. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Exchange Market Pressure," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    5. Ammar Hamad Khalaf, 2018. "Foreign Exchange Market Pressure Index And Monetary Policy In Iraq," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 63(219), pages 61-82, October –.
    6. Scott W Hegerty, 2010. "Exchange-market pressure and currency crises in Latin America: Empirical tests of their macroeconomic determinants," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2210-2219.

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