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Exchange Rate Regimes and Exchange Market Pressure in the New EU Member States

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  • ANDRÉ VAN POECK
  • JACQUES VANNESTE
  • MARET VEINER

Abstract

Economic theory has stressed the vulnerability to currency crises of intermediate exchange regimes. ERM II constitutes a fixed but adjustable pegged exchange rate arrangement and can therefore be categorized as an intermediate regime, in contrast to polar regimes such as currency boards and freely floating exchange rates. Our regression results for eight new EU Member States reveal the role of economic fundamentals in explaining exchange market pressure in these countries and confirm the bipolar view on exchange rate regimes. We conclude that the new EU members should not enter ERM II before their fundamentals are strong enough to compensate for the vulnerability of the exchange rate regime. Otherwise the condition for entering EMU, i.e. preceding participation in ERM II without devaluation or serious tensions on the exchange market, could be jeopardized.

Suggested Citation

  • André Van Poeck & Jacques Vanneste & Maret Veiner, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Exchange Market Pressure in the New EU Member States," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 459-485, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:45:y:2007:i:2:p:459-485
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2007.00718.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
    2. Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-167, June.
    3. Stavarek Daniel, 2008. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 3(2), pages 7-18, November.
    4. Daniel Stavárek, 2009. "Assessment of the exchange rate convergence in Euro-candidate countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(25), pages 159-180, February.
    5. Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Assessing Indicators of Currency Crisis in Ethiopia: Signals Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(3), pages 315-330, September.
    6. Feldkircher, Martin & Horvath, Roman & Rusnak, Marek, 2014. "Exchange market pressures during the financial crisis: A Bayesian model averaging evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-41.
    7. HEGERTY, Scott W., 2014. "Exchange Market Pressure And Regional Price Spillovers In Russia, Ukraine, And Belarus," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).
    8. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2010. "The Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe: the Measures and Determinants of the Exchange Market Pressure Index and the Money Market Pressure Index," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(2).
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Hasan Güngör, 2019. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Exchange Market Pressure," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    11. Scott William Hegerty, 2013. "Principal component measures of exchange market pressure: comparisons with variance-weighted measures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1483-1495, September.
    12. Devendra Kumar Jain & Rup Singh & Arvind Patel & Ronal Chand, 2023. "Foreign exchange market asymmetries in Pacific small island developing states: Evidence from Fiji," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4353-4364, October.
    13. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2011. "Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime: Its Effectson El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 2011/129, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Sook-Rei Tan & Wei-Siang Wang & Wai-Mun Chia, 2021. "International Capital Flows and Extreme Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 479-506, July.
    15. Francisco Ledesma Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 2008. "The Credibility of the European monetary System:A Review," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 31(86), pages 005-034, Mayo-Agos.
    16. Ping Wang & Tomoe Moore, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to currency crises: country-specific factors versus regional factors," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 619-640, November.
    17. Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "How integrated are the exchange markets of the Baltic Sea Region? An examination of market pressure and its contagion," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 109-122, December.
    18. Gülden Poyraz & Ahmet İncekara, 2021. "On Determinants of Exchange Market Pressure in Turkey: The Role of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 63(63), pages 199-211, June.
    19. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "The Stress of Having a Single Monetary Policy in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2251, CESifo.
    20. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    21. David Gray, 2014. "Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 550-567, June.
    22. Scott W Hegerty, 2010. "Exchange-market pressure and currency crises in Latin America: Empirical tests of their macroeconomic determinants," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2210-2219.
    23. Devendra Kumar Jain & Naqeeb Ur-Rehman & Omonjon Ganiev & Kapil Arora, 2023. "Currencies of greater interest for central Asian economies: an analysis of exchange market pressure amid global and regional interdependence," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, December.
    24. Stavarek, Daniel, 2010. "Exchange Market Pressure and De Facto Exchange Rate Regime in the Euro-Candidates," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 119-139, July.

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