The impacts of a reduction in British meat and dairy consumption on Northern Ireland’s agri-food sector

In 2020, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) recommended that British consumers reduce their beef, lamb and dairy consumption by 20% for both environmental and health reasons. For a region like Northern Ireland, this presents a significant challenge. Northern Ireland, considered to be performing poorly local economy within the United Kingdom and Ireland, has an export-orientated agri-food sector with an extensive domestic supply chain. This study shows the likely trade-offs required for a small regional economy with a large, established cattle herd to sustainably transition from one agri-food system to another. In so doing, the study uses the most comprehensive agricultural data collections to rebalance Northern Irish input–output tables, to better account for the nature of NI intermediate consumption within an agri-food system. The results show that a large-scale transition from beef, lamb and dairy to fruit and vegetable production would create a more emission efficient agricultural sector. The worst economic effects could be offset within current NI policy parameters, although there would still likely be some economic costs.