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The hot hand in professional darts

Author

Listed:
  • Marius Ötting
  • Roland Langrock
  • Christian Deutscher
  • Vianey Leos‐Barajas

Abstract

We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto‐regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Ötting & Roland Langrock & Christian Deutscher & Vianey Leos‐Barajas, 2020. "The hot hand in professional darts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 565-580, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:183:y:2020:i:2:p:565-580
    DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2018. "Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 2019-2047, November.
    9. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michels, Rouven & Ötting, Marius & Langrock, Roland, 2023. "Bettors’ reaction to match dynamics: Evidence from in-game betting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1118-1127.
    2. Robert Wrathall & Rod Falvey & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2020. "Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 45(2), pages 223-239, May.
    3. Jeremy M. Losak & Andrew P. Weinbach & Rodney J. Paul, 2023. "Behavioral Biases in Daily Fantasy Baseball: The Case of the Hot Hand," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 374-401, April.
    4. Marius Ötting & Roland Langrock & Antonello Maruotti, 2023. "A copula-based multivariate hidden Markov model for modelling momentum in football," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 9-27, March.
    5. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Sandra Schneemann & Roland Langrock & Sebastian Gehrmann & Hendrik Scholten, 2020. "Performance under pressure in skill tasks: An analysis of professional darts," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Martin B. Haugh & Chun Wang, 2022. "Play Like the Pros? Solving the Game of Darts as a Dynamic Zero-Sum Game," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(5), pages 2540-2551, September.
    7. Wen‐Jhan Jane, 2023. "Hot hand or choking under pressure – Evidence from professional basketball," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 223-254, May.
    8. Sina Mews & Marius Ötting, 2023. "Continuous-time state-space modelling of the hot hand in basketball," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 107(1), pages 313-326, March.
    9. Dominik Deffner & David Mezey & Benjamin Kahl & Alexander Schakowski & Pawel Romanczuk & Charley M. Wu & Ralf H. J. M. Kurvers, 2024. "Collective incentives reduce over-exploitation of social information in unconstrained human groups," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
      • Marius Otting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Papers 2211.06052, arXiv.org.
    11. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2023. "Gambling on Momentum in Contests," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-08, Department of Economics, University of Reading.

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