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Democracy Doesn’t Always Happen Over Night: Regime Change in Stages and Economic Growth

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  • Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A.
  • Eberhardt, Markus

Abstract

How substantial are the economic benefits from democratic regime change? We argue that democratisation is often not a discrete event but a two-stage process: autocracies enter into ‘episodes’ of political liberalisation which eventually culminate in regime change or not. To account for this chronology and the implicit counterfactual groups, we introduce a repeated-treatment difference-in-difference implementation capturing non-parallel trends and selection into treatment. We find that modelling regime change in two stages rather than a single event yields stronger long-run growth effects. Among democratizers, experiencing repeated episodes without regime change reduces growth in democracy whereas length of episode does not.

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  • Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A. & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Democracy Doesn’t Always Happen Over Night: Regime Change in Stages and Economic Growth," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Forthcomi, pages 1-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:295128
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    Cited by:

    1. Vanessa Boese-Schlosser & Markus Eberhardt, 2023. "How does democracy cause growth?," Discussion Papers 2023-13, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    2. Rachel Cho & Rodolphe Desbordes & Markus Eberhardt, 2022. "The causal effects of the darker side of financial development," Discussion Papers 2022-04, University of Nottingham, GEP.

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