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On the origins, persistence and termination of spatial and positional rivalries in world politics: Elaborating a two-issue theory of conflict escalation

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  • Kentaro Sakuwa

    (Department of International Politics, Aoyama Gakuin University, Japan)

  • William R Thompson

    (Department of Political Science, Indiana University, USA)

Abstract

What drives the dynamics of rivalry? We propose a general explanation of why international rivalries originate, persist, and terminate. We argue that rivalries persist as long as contested issues are present. Rivalries tend to form between actors with spatial or positional disputes. As rivals cease disputing spatial or positional issues, they are less likely to maintain hostility or manifest overt conflict toward each other. Particularly focusing on the role of territorial issues, we test an issue-based explanation of rivalry processes utilizing an extended boundary dispute dataset. The empirical analysis reveals that the effect of territorial disputes is contingent on the type of rivalry. Spatial rivalries, as opposed to positional rivalries, tend to develop when there are boundary disputes. When these spatial disputes are resolved, spatial rivalries tend to end, while positional rivalries and “mixed†(both spatial and positional) rivalries are less affected by the absence of boundary disputes. Rivalries tend to be conflictual, but only as long as the relevant issues persist. Such results show the importance of contested issues driving the rivalry processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kentaro Sakuwa & William R Thompson, 2019. "On the origins, persistence and termination of spatial and positional rivalries in world politics: Elaborating a two-issue theory of conflict escalation," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 203-225, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:intare:v:22:y:2019:i:3:p:203-225
    DOI: 10.1177/2233865919846729
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel S. Morey, 2011. "When War Brings Peace: A Dynamic Model of the Rivalry Process," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 263-275, April.
    2. Michael Colaresi, 2004. "When Doves Cry: International Rivalry, Unreciprocated Cooperation, and Leadership Turnover," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 555-570, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Prashant Hosur Suhas & Shelli Israelsen, 2022. "Interstate Rivalries and Expansions in Military Capacity," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 50-72, March.

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