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When War Brings Peace: A Dynamic Model of the Rivalry Process

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  • Daniel S. Morey

Abstract

This study develops a dynamic model of the rivalry process, explicitly connecting the conflicts that form rivalries. The model demonstrates how these conflicts combine to form an especially conflict‐prone relationship. Using numerical simulations of the model, I deduce and test a hypothesis connecting dyadic conflict and rivalry termination. High‐concentration conflicts increase the probability of rivalry termination by causing a sharp and sustained drop in public support for future military action. Dyadic conflict between rivals can bring peace, under the right circumstances. The article concludes with a discussion of the model's implications for policymakers seeking to limit international violence.

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  • Daniel S. Morey, 2011. "When War Brings Peace: A Dynamic Model of the Rivalry Process," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 263-275, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:55:y:2011:i:2:p:263-275
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00488.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Sang Ki Kim, 2017. "Third-party Intervention in Civil Wars and the Prospects for Postwar Development," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(3), pages 615-642, March.
    2. Kentaro Sakuwa & William R Thompson, 2019. "On the origins, persistence and termination of spatial and positional rivalries in world politics: Elaborating a two-issue theory of conflict escalation," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 203-225, September.
    3. Richard J Saunders, 2023. "A certain gamble: Institutional change, leader turnover, and their effect on rivalry termination," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(3), pages 281-303, May.
    4. David R. Dreyer, 2012. "Issue Intractability and the Persistence of International Rivalry," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(5), pages 471-489, November.

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