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When do leader backgrounds matter? Evidence from the President’s Daily Brief

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Goldfien

    (24348United States Naval War College, USA)

  • Michael Joseph

    (8784University of California, San Diego, USA)

  • Daniel Krcmaric

    (3270Northwestern University, USA)

Abstract

A wave of recent scholarship shows that the backgrounds of political leaders shape their behavior once in office. This paper shifts the literature in a new direction by investigating the conditions under which foreign observers think a leader's background is relevant. We argue that pre-tenure biographical attributes are most informative to outsiders during leadership transitions—unique periods where the new ruler does not yet have a track record—because a leader's background provides clues about how that leader might govern. But as time passes, foreign observers quickly discount the leader's biography and instead evaluate the leader's observable behavior. We test our theory by creating a systematic daily measure of attention to foreign leader backgrounds derived from the President's Daily Brief, a novel data source of 4991 recently declassified reports from the Central Intelligence Agency to the American president.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Goldfien & Michael Joseph & Daniel Krcmaric, 2024. "When do leader backgrounds matter? Evidence from the President’s Daily Brief," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(4), pages 414-437, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:41:y:2024:i:4:p:414-437
    DOI: 10.1177/07388942231196109
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