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Simulation of Land Development through the Integration of Cellular Automata and Multicriteria Evaluation

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  • F Wu
  • C J Webster

Abstract

Cellular automata (CA) simulation has become a popular method of exploring the behaviour of all kinds of self-organising systems. The city may clearly be viewed as such a system but one with a particularly complex set of transition rules. Many natural processes such as the spread of fire or vegetation can be modelled by a simple set of local rules. Insofar as the development of a piece of land depends on the neighbourhood situation as well as on the characteristics of a site, urban evolution can be treated in much the same way, with transition rules translating the evaluation of the location into a land conversion outcome. If this modelling paradigm is to be used to gain insight into real-world urban development processes, there is a need to discover ways of capturing the richness of land conversion behaviour in the simplifying mechanisms of CA. Our paper contributes to this research agenda by integrating multicriteria evaluation (MCE) into a CA simulation in order to define nondeterministic, multidimensional, and multilevel transition rules. An analytical hierarchy process is used to implement MCE-derived transition rules. The integrated MCE – CA model may be used in a gaming mode to explore how urban form evolves under different development regimes caricatured by the set of multicriteria weights. We use it to test loosely hypotheses about the nature of the regimes that have governed the expansion of a fast-growing southern Chinese city.

Suggested Citation

  • F Wu & C J Webster, 1998. "Simulation of Land Development through the Integration of Cellular Automata and Multicriteria Evaluation," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 25(1), pages 103-126, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:25:y:1998:i:1:p:103-126
    DOI: 10.1068/b250103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R White & G Engelen, 1993. "Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(8), pages 1175-1199, August.
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    2. Jiangfeng She & Zhongqing Guan & Fangfang Cai & Lijie Pu & Junzhong Tan & Tao Chen, 2017. "Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Xiaoli Hu & Xin Li & Ling Lu, 2018. "Modeling the Land Use Change in an Arid Oasis Constrained by Water Resources and Environmental Policy Change Using Cellular Automata Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Cong Cao & Suzana Dragićević & Songnian Li, 2019. "Short-Term Forecasting of Land Use Change Using Recurrent Neural Network Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-18, September.
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    6. Cheng Li & Jie Zhao & Nguyen Xuan Thinh & Yantao Xi, 2018. "Assessment of the Effects of Urban Expansion on Terrestrial Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Xuzhou City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, February.
    7. Xuesong Gao & Yu Liu & Lun Liu & Qiquan Li & Ouping Deng & Yali Wei & Jing Ling & Min Zeng, 2018. "Is Big Good or Bad?: Testing the Performance of Urban Growth Cellular Automata Simulation at Different Spatial Extents," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Tian, Guangjin & Ouyang, Yun & Quan, Quan & Wu, Jianguo, 2011. "Simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of urbanization with multi-agent systems—A case study of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(5), pages 1129-1138.
    9. Lei Fang & Yingjie Wang, 2018. "Multi-Disciplinary Determination of the Rural/Urban Boundary: A Case Study in Xi’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-13, July.
    10. Qing Zheng & Xuan Yang & Ke Wang & Lingyan Huang & Amir Reza Shahtahmassebi & Muye Gan & Melanie Valerie Weston, 2017. "Delimiting Urban Growth Boundary through Combining Land Suitability Evaluation and Cellular Automata," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, November.
    11. Yang, Xin & Zheng, Xin-Qi & Lv, Li-Na, 2012. "A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 11-19.
    12. Ye Zhou & Feng Zhang & Zhenhong Du & Xinyue Ye & Renyi Liu, 2017. "Integrating Cellular Automata with the Deep Belief Network for Simulating Urban Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Dagmar Haase, 2005. "Derivation of robust predictor variables for modelling urban shrinkage and its effects at different scales," ERSA conference papers ersa05p322, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Di Traglia, Mario & Attorre, Fabio & Francesconi, Fabio & Valenti, Roberto & Vitale, Marcello, 2011. "Is cellular automata algorithm able to predict the future dynamical shifts of tree species in Italy under climate change scenarios? A methodological approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 925-934.
    15. Liu, Xiaoping & Li, Xia & Shi, Xun & Wu, Shaokun & Liu, Tao, 2008. "Simulating complex urban development using kernel-based non-linear cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 169-181.
    16. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    17. Jing Yang & Feng Shi & Yizhong Sun & Jie Zhu, 2019. "A Cellular Automata Model Constrained by Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Urban Development Strategy for Simulating Land-use Change: A Case Study in Nanjing City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-19, July.
    18. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    19. Jun Ren & Wei Zhou & Xuelu Liu & Liang Zhou & Jing Guo & Yonghao Wang & Yanjun Guan & Jingtian Mao & Yuhan Huang & Rongrong Ma, 2019. "Urban Expansion and Growth Boundaries in an Oasis City in an Arid Region: A Case Study of Jiayuguan City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    20. Thekdi, Shital A. & Lambert, James H., 2015. "Integrated risk management of safety and development on transportation corridors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-12.
    21. Deal, Brian & Schunk, Daniel, 2004. "Spatial dynamic modeling and urban land use transformation: a simulation approach to assessing the costs of urban sprawl," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 79-95, November.
    22. Yan Liu & Yongjiu Feng, 2016. "Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.

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