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Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ruud Egging
  • Franziska Holzf
  • Christian von Hirschhausen
  • Steven A. Gabriel

Abstract

This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately hold back production. The results show that compared to our Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruud Egging & Franziska Holzf & Christian von Hirschhausen & Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 97-118, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:30:y:2009:i:1_suppl:p:97-118
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Egging, Rudolf G. & Gabriel, Steven A., 2006. "Examining market power in the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2762-2778, November.
    2. Garci'a-Bertrand, Raquel & Conejo, Antonio J. & Gabriel, Steven, 2006. "Electricity market near-equilibrium under locational marginal pricing and minimum profit conditions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(1), pages 457-479, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huppmann, Daniel & Egging, Ruud, 2014. "Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 483-500.
    2. Robert A. Ritz, 2013. "Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage in global LNG markets," Working Papers EPRG 1317, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    3. Ritz, Robert A., 2014. "Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage: An analysis of global LNG markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 324-332.

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