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Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage: An analysis of global LNG markets

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  • Ritz, Robert A.

Abstract

Gas prices around the world vary widely despite being connected by international trade of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Some industry observers argue that major exporters have acted irrationally by not arbitraging prices. This is also difficult to reconcile with a competitive model in which regional price differences exist solely because of transport costs. We show that a model which incorporates market power can rationalize observed prices and trade flows. We highlight how different features of the LNG market limit the ability and/or incentive of other players to engage in arbitrage, including constraints in LNG shipping. We also present some rough estimates of market power in short-term sales by Qatar (to Japan and the UK), and discuss the potential impact of US LNG exports.

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  • Ritz, Robert A., 2014. "Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage: An analysis of global LNG markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 324-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:324-332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.07.013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zeyu Hou & Xiaoyu Niu & Zhaoyuan Yu & Wei Chen, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Market Dynamics of the International Liquefied Natural Gas Trade: A Multilevel Network Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Baba, Amina & Creti, Anna & Massol, Olivier, 2020. "What can be learned from the free destination option in the LNG imbroglio?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Robert A. Ritz, 2015. "Strategic investment and international spillovers in natural gas markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1510, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. David Andrés‐Cerezo & Natalia Fabra, 2023. "Storing power: market structure matters," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 54(1), pages 3-53, March.
    6. Cassetta, Ernesto & Nava, Consuelo R. & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "A three-step procedure to investigate the convergence of electricity and natural gas prices in the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Hupka, Yuri & Popova, Ivilina & Simkins, Betty & Lee, Thomas, 2023. "A review of the literature on LNG: Hubs development, market integration, and price discovery," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    8. Robert A. Ritz, 2016. "Strategic investment, multimarket interaction and competitive advantage: An application to the natural gas industry," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1603, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Marc Bohmann & Vinay Patel, 2020. "Information Leakage in Energy Derivatives around News Announcements," Published Paper Series 2020-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Amina Baba & Anna Creti & Olivier Massol, 2020. "What can we Learn from the Free Destination Option in the LNG Imbroglio ?," Working Papers hal-03181028, HAL.
    11. Wang, Wenya & Fan, L.W. & Zhou, P., 2022. "Evolution of global fossil fuel trade dependencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    12. Chai, Jian & Wei, Zhaohao & Hu, Yi & Su, Siping & Zhang, Zhe George, 2019. "Is China's natural gas market globally connected?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 940-949.
    13. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    14. Olivier Massol & Albert Banal-Estanol, 2018. "Market Power and Spatial Arbitrage between Interconnected Gas Hubs," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2_suppl), pages 67-96, December.
    15. Chi-Kong Chyong & Roman Kazmin, 2016. "The economics of global LNG trade: the case of Atlantic and Pacific inter-basin arbitrage in 2010-2014," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1604, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Limits to arbitrage; Market power; Natural gas; Price discrimination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

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