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Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025

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  • Franziska Holz
  • Christian von Hirschhausen
  • Claudia Kemfert

Abstract

We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic severallayer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (~ share of 1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European gas markets, but less than in the current situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2008. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 823, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp823
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
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    7. Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 97-118.
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    9. Ferris, Michael C. & Munson, Todd S., 2000. "Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 165-188, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Youngho Chang & Ridwan D. Rusli & Jackson The, 2024. "German Energy Transition and Energy Security," DEM Discussion Paper Series 24-09, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    3. Mingjing Guo & Yan Bu & Jinhua Cheng & Ziyu Jiang, 2018. "Natural Gas Security in China: A Simulation of Evolutionary Trajectory and Obstacle Degree Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    4. Dieckhöner, Caroline & Lochner, Stefan & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "European natural gas infrastructure: The impact of market developments on gas flows and physical market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 994-1003.
    5. Axel M. Wietfeld, 2011. "Understanding Middle East Gas Exporting Behavior," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 203-228.
    6. Kristine Grimsrud & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Halvor B. Storrøsten & Marina Tsygankova, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-renewable Resource," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, July.
    7. Youngho Chang & Dang Thi Quynh Trang & Tsiat Siong Tan & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2021. "Competition and cooperation in the natural gas market: a game-theoretic demand-base analysis," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-49, December.
    8. Jia, Weidong & Gong, Chengzhu & Pan, Kai & Yu, Shiwei, 2023. "Potential changes of regional natural gas market in China amidst liberalization: A mixed complementarity equilibrium simulation in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    9. Brandão, António & Soares, Isabel & Sarmento, Paula & Resende, Joana & Pinho, Joana, 2014. "Regulating international gas transport: Welfare effects of postage stamp and entry–exit systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 86-95.
    10. Bigerna, Simona & Ceccacci, Francesca & Micheli, Silvia & Polinori, Paolo, 2023. "Between saying and doing for ensuring energy resources supply: The case of Italy in time of crisis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; Europe; modeling; LNG; supply security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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