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Modeling Government Policies used for Sustaining Economic Growth in Romania

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  • Stanica, Cristian Nicolae

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

This paper presents some government policies scenarios and proposes the appropriate policies for stimulating the economic growth in Romania. The GDP dynamics, budgetary revenues, employment and wages are forecasted using a macroeconomic model of the Romanian economy. The direct effects of the fiscal policies and the indirect effects of the economic growth changes are investigated by three alternative scenarios as compared to a baseline scenario. The baseline should meet the following requirements: update of the macroeconomic indicators and maintenance of the same fiscal policy in the forecast period 2012-2013 as to 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2011. "Modeling Government Policies used for Sustaining Economic Growth in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 90-105, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:90-105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The Dobrescu Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy – 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Spring Forecast 2011, March Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 277-281, March.
    2. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast 2011, September Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 267-269, September.
    3. Stanica, Cristian, 2004. "Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Sam Model For The Romanian Economy - Part Ii – Equations Of The Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(3), pages 66-73, August.
    4. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Shoven, John B., 1988. "Survey of dynamic computational general equilibrium models for tax policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 401-436.
    5. Stanica, Cristian, 2004. "MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING BASED ON A SAM MODEL OF THE ROMANIAN ECONOMY - Part I – Main Features of the Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(1), pages 92-96, February.
    6. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2010. "Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 7-28, July.
    8. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Summer Forecast 2011, June Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 171-174, March.
    9. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
    10. Moisa, Altar & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy. An Eclectic Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-25, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial programming; simulation models; mix of policies; fiscal relaxation; minimum wage; taxation bases;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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