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Scenarios Of Economic Development In Romania – Medium To Long-Term Forecasting Models

Author

Listed:
  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Roudoi, Andrei

    (Global Insight (DRI-WEFA), Washington, DC, USA)

Abstract

In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to 2010-2015 horizon, the authors use a mix of forecasting models, like „medium-term” ones and „long-run” models. In this respect three alternative models are used, a sustainability function model (for public debt and fiscal deficits), a simple econometric model based on a production function with FDI and exports included as inputs and a standard Cobb-Douglas model.

Suggested Citation

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu & Roudoi, Andrei, 2003. "Scenarios Of Economic Development In Romania – Medium To Long-Term Forecasting Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 64-77, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2003:i:5:p:64-77
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Croitoru, Lucian & Tarhoaca, Cornel, 2003. "The Romanian Growth Potential – A Cge Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-22, December.
    4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2003. "Estimating contribution of factors to long-term growth in Romania," MPRA Paper 14729, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; sustainability function; production function; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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