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The Evolution of Awareness and Belief Ambiguity in the Process of High School Track Choice

Author

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  • Pamela Giustinelli

    (University of Michigan)

  • Nicola Pavoni

    (Bocconi University)

Abstract

In this article, we provide novel survey evidence on middle schoolers' knowledge and on how such knowledge evolves in the process of high school track choice. Children in our study display only partial awareness of the set of available tracks, and they report low confidence regarding their beliefs (i.e., substantial belief ambiguity) about their likelihood of a regular high school path. This is especially the case for lower-ranked tracks. Students start 8th grade with greater information about their preferred alternatives and continue to concentrate their search in the months before pre-enrollment. Children from less advantaged families display lower initial perceived knowledge and acquire information at a slower pace, particularly about college-preparatory schools. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Giustinelli & Nicola Pavoni, 2017. "The Evolution of Awareness and Belief Ambiguity in the Process of High School Track Choice," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 25, pages 93-120, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:16-101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2017.01.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Foster, Gigi & Frijters, Paul & Schaffner, Markus & Torgler, Benno, 2018. "Expectation formation in an evolving game of uncertainty: New experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 379-405.
    3. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
    5. Brunello, Giorgio & Crocè, Clementina & Giustinelli, Pamela & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2024. "Teacher Personality and the Perceived Socioeconomic Gap in Student Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 17331, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    7. Henkel, Luca, 2024. "Experimental evidence on the relationship between perceived ambiguity and likelihood insensitivity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 312-338.
    8. Loviglio, Annalisa, 2023. "School Quality beyond Test Scores: The Role of Schools in Shaping Educational Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 16111, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. De Filippis, Roberta & Guarino, Antonio & Jehiel, Philippe & Kitagawa, Toru, 2022. "Non-Bayesian updating in a social learning experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    10. Aktaş Koray & Argentin Gianluca & Barbetta Gian Paolo & Colombo Luca V.A. & Barbieri Gianna, 2022. "High School Choices by Immigrant Students in Italy: Evidence from Administrative Data," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 527-572, July.
    11. Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Can perceived returns explain enrollment gaps in postgraduate education?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Pamela Giustinelli & Charles F Manski & Francesca Molinari, 2022. "Precise or Imprecise Probabilities? Evidence from Survey Response Related to Late-Onset Dementia," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 187-221.
    13. Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Eliciting ambiguity with mixing bets," Papers 1902.07447, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    14. Joaquín, 2018. "Educación artística, elección de bachillerato y capacidades. Efecto de la creación del bachillerato artístico en la matrícula universitaria," Documentos de Investigación Estudiantil (students working papers) 18-03, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    15. Dominiak, Adam & Tserenjigmid, Gerelt, 2022. "Ambiguity under growing awareness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective Beliefs; Learning under Ambiguity and Limited Awareness; School Choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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