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Les principales caractéristiques du cycle économique et de la croissance tendancielle au Liban

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  • Verne, Jean-François

    (Université Saint-Esprit de Kaslik, Liban)

Abstract

This article shows that the typologies of economic cycles and long run growth in Lebanon seem to be modified over the 1970-2009 period. Before 1990, the end of the conflict which began in 1975, expansion’s phases record a longer duration than the phases of recession and the cyclic amplitudes are more important than what we can notice after the end of the war. Indeed, from 1996, the duration of the recession’s phases is superior or equal to the duration of the expansion’s phases and the GDP fluctuates softly around its long run trend. In addition, over the studied period, the long run growth shows a weakly positive rate and the GDP comes back towards its trend approximately 8 years after the end of conflict. It means that an exogenous shock has only a transitory effect on the Lebanese GDP. We notice, consequently, a persistence phenomenon of shock. Résumé : Cet article montre que les caractéristiques des cycles économiques et de la croissance tendancielle au Liban se sont modifiées sur la période 1970-2009. Avant 1990, date marquant la fin du conflit qui a débuté en 1975, les phases d’expansion enregistrent une durée plus longue que les phases de récession et les amplitudes cycliques sont très importantes par rapport à ce que l’on peut constater après la fin de la guerre. En effet, à partir de 1996, la durée des phases de récession est supérieure ou égale à celle des phases d’expansion et le PIB fluctue faiblement autour de sa tendance de long terme. En outre, sur la période étudiée, la croissance tendancielle affiche un taux faiblement positif et le PIB observé revient vers sa tendance de long terme environ huit ans après la fin du conflit. Cela signifie qu’un choc exogène n’a qu’un effet transitoire sur le PIB libanais. On constate, par conséquent, un phénomène de persistance du choc.

Suggested Citation

  • Verne, Jean-François, 2011. "Les principales caractéristiques du cycle économique et de la croissance tendancielle au Liban," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(2), pages 117-136, juin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0050
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    References listed on IDEAS

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