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Emploi : une analyse critique des politiques malthusiennes

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  • David Spector

Abstract

[eng] Employment : a Critical Analysis of Malthusian Policies. . This article builds and calibrates a model of the French labour market in order to compare the effect of the various economic policy measures : Malthusian measures to withdraw individuals from the working population and measures to lower charges. The model stresses the importance of the heterogeneousness of individual productivity near the minimum wage. Estimation of the elasticity of low wages to the unemployment rate and the use of existing empirical data demonstrate that productivity is very heterogeneous at this level, which makes Malthusian measures relatively ineffective : one hundred withdrawals from the labour market free up at most forty jobs. By contrast, reducing the cost of unskilled labour is effective in the long term and may even have a negative or zero cost for public finance. [fre] Cet article construit et calibre un modèle du marché du travail français afin de comparer l’effet de différentes mesures de politique économique : les mesures “ malthusiennes”, consistant à retirer des individus de la population active, et les mesures de baisse de charges. La modélisation insiste sur l’importance de l’hétérogénéité des productivités individuelles au voisinage du salaire minimum. Une estimation de l’élasticité des bas salaires au taux de chômage et l’exploitation des travaux empiriques existants permettent de conclure que cette hétérogénéité est grande, ce qui rend peu efficaces les mesures malthusiennes : cent retraits du marché du travail libèrent quarante emplois au mieux. En revanche, la baisse du coût du travail peu qualifié est efficace à long terme et peut même avoir un coût négatif ou nul pour les finances publiques.

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  • David Spector, 2001. "Emploi : une analyse critique des politiques malthusiennes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 150(4), pages 13-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_150_4_6346
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2001.6346
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6346
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