Impact des allégements de cotisations patronales des bas salaires sur l'emploi. L'apport des modèles macroéconomiques

In this study, we propose a quantitative evaluation on employment of payroll tax subsidies for low-wage workers with the macroeconomic model of the OFCE emod.fr. We evaluate that this measure creates 500,000 jobs after five years, but induces a cost to public finances. If we were to fund ex post the measure, the impact on employment would be reduced compared to the initial evaluation of 35% to 50% depending on the type of financing used. And if this policy does not result in increased competitiveness on the outside, then the effect on employment is divided by three or seven in the worst case from the initial evaluation. JEL code : C13, C22, E24, E27, J38