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Space-time covid-19 Bayesian SIR modeling in South Carolina

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  • Andrew B Lawson
  • Joanne Kim

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has spread across the world since the beginning of 2020. Many regions have experienced its effects. The state of South Carolina in the USA has seen cases since early March 2020 and a primary peak in early April 2020. A lockdown was imposed on April 6th but lifting of restrictions started on April 24th. The daily case and death data as reported by NCHS (deaths) via the New York Times GitHUB repository have been analyzed and approaches to modeling of the data are presented. Prediction is also considered and the role of asymptomatic transmission is assessed as a latent unobserved effect. Two different time periods are examined and one step prediction is provided. The results suggest that both socio-economic disadvantage, asymptomatic transmission and spatial confounding are important ingredients in any model pertaining to county level case dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B Lawson & Joanne Kim, 2021. "Space-time covid-19 Bayesian SIR modeling in South Carolina," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0242777
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexander Morton & Bärbel F. Finkenstädt, 2005. "Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(3), pages 575-594, June.
    2. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    3. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Linde, 2014. "The deviance information criterion: 12 years on," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(3), pages 485-493, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Barrera & Patricia Román-Román & Juan José Serrano-Pérez & Francisco Torres-Ruiz, 2021. "Two Multi-Sigmoidal Diffusion Models for the Study of the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-29, September.

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