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Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker

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  • Rogier J D Potter van Loon
  • Martijn J van den Assem
  • Dennie van Dolder

Abstract

A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.

Suggested Citation

  • Rogier J D Potter van Loon & Martijn J van den Assem & Dennie van Dolder, 2015. "Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0115479
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0115479
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcel Dreef & Peter Borm & Ben van der Genugten, 2003. "On Strategy and Relative Skill in Poker," International Game Theory Review (IGTR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 83-103.
    2. Marcel Dreef & Peter Borm & Ben van der Genugten, 2004. "A new relative skill measure for games with chance elements," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 255-264.
    3. Steven D. Levitt & Thomas J. Miles, 2014. "The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker Evidence From the World Series of Poker," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 31-44, February.
    4. Patrick Larkey & Joseph B. Kadane & Robert Austin & Shmuel Zamir, 1997. "Skill in Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(5), pages 596-609, May.
    5. Hendrickx, R.L.P. & Borm, P.E.M. & van der Genugten, B.B. & Hilbers, P., 2008. "Measuring Skill in More-Person Games with Applications to Poker," Discussion Paper 2008-106, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Marcel Dreef & Peter Borm & Ben van der Genugten, 2004. "Measuring skill in games: several approaches discussed," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 59(3), pages 375-391, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Johannes Kasinger & Dmitrij Schneider, 2024. "Skewness Preferences: Evidence from Online Poker," CESifo Working Paper Series 10977, CESifo.
    2. Lambrecht, Marco, 2020. "Measuring skill and chance in different versions of Poker," Working Papers 0687, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Duersch, Peter & Lambrecht, Marco & Oechssler, Joerg, 2020. "Measuring skill and chance in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Hergueux, Jerome & Smagghue, Gabriel, 2023. "The dominance of skill in online poker," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Kasinger, Johannes & Schneider, Dmitrij, 2022. "Skewness preferences: Evidence from online poker," SAFE Working Paper Series 351, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    6. Philip W. S. Newall & Leonardo Weiss-Cohen, 2022. "The Gamblification of Investing: How a New Generation of Investors Is Being Born to Lose," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-10, April.

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