IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/irlaec/v74y2023ics0144818822000758.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dominance of skill in online poker

Author

Listed:
  • Hergueux, Jerome
  • Smagghue, Gabriel

Abstract

Does skill dominate luck in online poker? In many countries around the world, the legality of the online poker industry rests on courts’ evaluation of the “skill dominance” criterion. Because it is not precisely defined, however, the skill dominance criterion may be misleading when it comes to the legal qualification of online gambling activities. We argue that this concept might be better framed as “do skilled players dominate the game” than as “does skill dominate game outcomes”. We introduce a novel, comprehensive dataset on online poker play – where we follow 91,439 players over 40 consecutive months (representing over 85 million hands played) – and develop simple tests to show that (i) skill in the game drives individual results, and (ii) players improve their skills with experience and quit playing the game as a function of starting ability. A lower bound estimate suggests that it takes at least 7 months of full-time training for a novice to acquire the basic skills exhibited by the most experienced players in our data. We conclude that the scholarly debate around this industry may move beyond that of its legality to focus instead on issues of regulation. Beyond the case of online poker, the procedures and tools we develop can be readily transferred to evaluate the skill dominance criterion in other purported games of skill, such as sports betting or stock trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Hergueux, Jerome & Smagghue, Gabriel, 2023. "The dominance of skill in online poker," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:74:y:2023:i:c:s0144818822000758
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2022.106119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0144818822000758
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irle.2022.106119?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier Gabaix & Augustin Landier, 2008. "Why has CEO Pay Increased So Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 49-100.
    2. Duersch, Peter & Lambrecht, Marco & Oechssler, Joerg, 2020. "Measuring skill and chance in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Gary Smith & Michael Levere & Robert Kurtzman, 2009. "Poker Player Behavior After Big Wins and Big Losses," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(9), pages 1547-1555, September.
    4. Bob Heere, 2018. "Embracing the sportification of society: Defining e-sports through a polymorphic view on sport," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 21-24, January.
    5. Rawley Z Heimer & Alex Imas, 2022. "Biased by Choice: How Financial Constraints Can Reduce Financial Mistakes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1643-1681.
    6. Rogier J D Potter van Loon & Martijn J van den Assem & Dennie van Dolder, 2015. "Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-23, March.
    7. Steven D. Levitt & Thomas J. Miles, 2014. "The Role of Skill Versus Luck in Poker Evidence From the World Series of Poker," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 31-44, February.
    8. Heere, Bob, 2018. "Embracing the sportification of society: Defining e-sports through a polymorphic view on sport," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 21-24.
    9. Kirstin Hallmann & Thomas Giel, 2018. "eSports – Competitive sports or recreational activity?," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 14-20, January.
    10. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2001. "Are CEOs Rewarded for Luck? The Ones Without Principals Are," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(3), pages 901-932.
    11. Van Essen, Matt & Wooders, John, 2015. "Blind stealing: Experience and expertise in a mixed-strategy poker experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 186-206.
    12. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    13. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    14. Hallmann, Kirstin & Giel, Thomas, 2018. "eSports – Competitive sports or recreational activity?," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 14-20.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haozhou Pu & Jeeyoon Kim & Corinne Daprano, 2021. "Can Esports Substitute Traditional Sports? The Convergence of Sports and Video Gaming during the Pandemic and Beyond," Societies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Kasinger, Johannes & Schneider, Dmitrij, 2024. "Skewness preferences: Evidence from online poker," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 460-484.
    3. Duersch, Peter & Lambrecht, Marco & Oechssler, Joerg, 2020. "Measuring skill and chance in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Cunningham, George B. & Fairley, Sheranne & Ferkins, Lesley & Kerwin, Shannon & Lock, Daniel & Shaw, Sally & Wicker, Pamela, 2018. "eSport: Construct specifications and implications for sport management," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-6.
    5. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Johannes Kasinger & Dmitrij Schneider, 2024. "Skewness Preferences: Evidence from Online Poker," CESifo Working Paper Series 10977, CESifo.
    6. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Kasinger, Johannes & Schneider, Dmitrij, 2022. "Skewness preferences: Evidence from online poker," SAFE Working Paper Series 351, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    7. Kazi Iqbal & Asad Islam & John List & Vy Nguyen, 2021. "Myopic Loss Aversion and Investment Decisions: From the Laboratory to the Field," Framed Field Experiments 000730, The Field Experiments Website.
    8. Chen, Zhimin & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2019. "One country, two systems? The heavy-tailedness of Chinese A- and H- share markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 115-141.
    9. Oyer, Paul & Schaefer, Scott, 2011. "Personnel Economics: Hiring and Incentives," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 20, pages 1769-1823, Elsevier.
    10. Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2016. "Bonus Culture: Competitive Pay, Screening, and Multitasking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(2), pages 305-370.
    11. Ahmed, Shaker & Ranta, Mikko & Vähämaa, Emilia & Vähämaa, Sami, 2023. "Facial attractiveness and CEO compensation: Evidence from the banking industry," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Eil, David & Lien, Jaimie W., 2014. "Staying ahead and getting even: Risk attitudes of experienced poker players," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 50-69.
    13. Słomka-Gołębiowska, Agnieszka & Urbanek, Piotr, 2016. "Corporate boards, large blockholders and executive compensation in banks: Evidence from Poland," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-220.
    14. Hill, Mary S. & Lopez, Thomas J. & Reitenga, Austin L., 2016. "CEO excess compensation: The impact of firm size and managerial power," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 35-46.
    15. Kuo-Hwa Chang & Michael Nayat Young, 2019. "Portfolios Optimizations of Behavioral Stocks with Perception Probability Weightings," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 817-845, November.
    16. Raman Uppal & Harjoat Bhamra, 2016. "Do Individual Behavioral Biases Affect Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1358, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Frano Giakoni-Ramírez & Eugenio Merellano-Navarro & Daniel Duclos-Bastías, 2022. "Professional Esports Players: Motivation and Physical Activity Levels," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-13, February.
    18. Olivier Godechot & Joanne Horton & Yuval Millo, 2022. "Executive Pay: Board Reciprocity Counts," Post-Print hal-03924965, HAL.
    19. Alex Edmans & Xavier Gabaix & Augustin Landier, 2007. "A Calibratable Model of Optimal CEO Incentives in Market Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 13372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Firth, Chris, 2020. "Protecting investors from themselves: Evidence from a regulatory intervention," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Online poker; Skill; Learning; Selection; Gambling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K20 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - General
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z2 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:74:y:2023:i:c:s0144818822000758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/irle .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.