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The Impact of Resources for Clinical Surveillance on the Control of a Hypothetical Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Denmark

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  • Tariq Halasa
  • Anette Boklund

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to assess whether current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could minimize economic losses. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was further developed to simulate clinical surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing system was included in the model, and based on daily surveillance capacity, which was 450 herds per day, it was decided whether herds appointed for surveillance would be surveyed on the current day or added to the queue. The model was run with a basic scenario representing the EU and Danish regulations, which includes a 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zone around detected herds. In alternative scenarios, the protection zone was enlarged to 5 km, the surveillance zone was enlarged to 15 or 20 km, or a combined enlargement of the protection and surveillance zones was modelled. Sensitivity analysis included changing surveillance capacity to 200, 350 or 600 herds per day, frequency of repeated visits for herds in overlapping surveillance zones from every 14 days to every 7, 21 and 30 days, and the size of the zones combined with a surveillance capacity increased to 600 herds per day. The results showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds on time. Extra resources for surveillance did not improve the situation, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Enlarging the protection zone was a better strategy than the basic scenario. Despite that enlarging the surveillance zone might result in shorter epidemic duration, and lower number of affected herds, it resulted frequently in larger economic losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Tariq Halasa & Anette Boklund, 2014. "The Impact of Resources for Clinical Surveillance on the Control of a Hypothetical Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Denmark," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-11, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0102480
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0102480
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franziska Junker & Joanna Ilicic-Komorowska & Frank van Tongeren, 2009. "Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks and Alternative Control Practices on Agricultural Markets and Trade: The case of FMD," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 19, OECD Publishing.
    2. Pendell, Dustin L. & Leatherman, John & Schroeder, Ted C. & Alward, Gregory S., 2007. "The Economic Impacts of a Foot-And-Mouth Disease Outbreak: A Regional Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(s1), pages 19-33, October.
    3. Junker, Franziska & Komorowska, Joanna & van Tongeren, Frank W., 2009. "The impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks and alternative control strategies on agricultural markets and trade," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51465, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
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