IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0057107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship between National-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Population Size: An Assessment of Regional and Temporal Variation, 1960–2005

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew K Jorgenson
  • Brett Clark

Abstract

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K Jorgenson & Brett Clark, 2013. "The Relationship between National-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Population Size: An Assessment of Regional and Temporal Variation, 1960–2005," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-8, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0057107
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0057107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0057107
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0057107&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0057107?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    2. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014, March.
    3. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LLC, number imeus, January.
    4. Jorgenson, Andrew & Birkholz, Ryan, 2010. "Assessing the causes of anthropogenic methane emissions in comparative perspective, 1990-2005," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2634-2643, October.
    5. Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
    6. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
    7. Richard York, 2012. "Asymmetric effects of economic growth and decline on CO2 emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 762-764, November.
    8. Glenn Firebaugh, 2008. "The First Rule, from Seven Rules for Social Research," Introductory Chapters, in: Seven Rules for Social Research, Princeton University Press.
    9. Eugene A. Rosa & Thomas Dietz, 2012. "Human drivers of national greenhouse-gas emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 581-586, August.
    10. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 431-455, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feng Dong & Ruyin Long & Hong Chen & Xiaohui Li & Qingliang Yang, 2013. "Factors Affecting Regional Per-Capita Carbon Emissions in China Based on an LMDI Factor Decomposition Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Casey, Gregory & Galor, Oded, 2017. "Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth," MPRA Paper 76164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ridwan Lanre Ibrahim & Kazeem Bello Ajide, 2022. "Trade facilitation and environmental quality: empirical evidence from some selected African countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1282-1312, January.
    4. Casey, Gregory & Galor, Oded, 2016. "Population Growth and Carbon Emissions," IZA Discussion Papers 10380, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Sweidan, Osama D. & Alwaked, Ahmed A., 2016. "Economic development and the energy intensity of human well-being: Evidence from the GCC countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1363-1369.
    6. Olaronke T. ONANUGA, 2017. "Elasticity of CO2 emissions with Respect to Income, Population, and Energy Use: Time Series Evidence from African Countries," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 651-670, December.
    7. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hemachandra Padhan & Gupteswar Patel & Sagarika Mishra & Rikil Chyrmang, 2024. "The role of gender life expectancy in environmental degradation: new insights for the BRICS economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 9305-9334, April.
    8. Wang, Shaojian & Xie, Zihan & Wu, Rong & Feng, Kuishang, 2022. "How does urbanization affect the carbon intensity of human well-being? A global assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    9. Andrew K Jorgenson & Jennifer Givens, 2015. "The Changing Effect of Economic Development on the Consumption-Based Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1990–2008," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, May.
    10. Maitri Verma & Alok Kumar Verma & A. K. Misra, 2021. "Mathematical modeling and optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions from energy sector," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13919-13944, September.
    11. Mohd Alsaleh & A. S. Abdul-Rahim, 2022. "An evaluation of bioenergy industry sustainability impacts on forest degradation: evidence from European Union economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 1738-1760, February.
    12. Lin Li & Fangfang Fan & Li Ma & Ziran Tang, 2016. "Energy Utilization Evaluation of Carbon Performance in Public Projects by FAHP and Cloud Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-18, July.
    13. Jorgenson, Andrew K. & Alekseyko, Alina & Giedraitis, Vincentas, 2014. "Energy consumption, human well-being and economic development in central and eastern European nations: A cautionary tale of sustainability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 419-427.
    14. Yanan Chen & Sheng Lin, 2015. "Study on factors affecting energy-related per capita carbon dioxide emission by multi-sectoral of cities: a case study of Tianjin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 833-846, June.
    15. Min Wang & Yang Wang & Yingmei Wu & Xiaoli Yue & Mengjiao Wang & Pingping Hu, 2022. "Detecting Differences in the Impact of Construction Land Types on Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Southwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, May.
    16. Gregory Casey & Oded Galor, 2016. "Is economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? Investigating the impacts of diminished population growth," Working Papers 2016-8, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    17. Chang, Chun-Ping & Dong, Minyi & Sui, Bo & Chu, Yin, 2019. "Driving forces of global carbon emissions: From time- and spatial-dynamic perspectives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-80.
    18. Kuokuo Zhao & Xuezhu Cui & Zhanhang Zhou & Peixuan Huang & Dongliang Li, 2021. "Exploring the Dependence and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from the Perspective of Population Development," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-20, October.
    19. Chulin Pan & Huayi Wang & Hongpeng Guo & Hong Pan, 2021. "How Do the Population Structure Changes of China Affect Carbon Emissions? An Empirical Study Based on Ridge Regression Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Layton, Allan, 2015. "Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: A decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 25-35.
    2. Kaika, Dimitra & Zervas, Efthimios, 2013. "The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory. Part B: Critical issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1403-1411.
    3. Pei-Ing Wu & Je-Liang Liou & Hung-Yi Chang, 2015. "Alternative exploration of EKC for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 emissions: inclusion of meta-technical ratio in quantile regression model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 57-73, January.
    4. Atwi, Majed & Barberán, Ramón & Mur, Jesús & Angulo, Ana, 2018. "CO2 Kuznets Curve Revisited: From Cross-Sections to Panel Data Models," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 40, pages 169-196.
    5. Wang, Kuan-Min, 2012. "Modelling the nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions from oil and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1537-1547.
    6. Lisa Gianmoena & Vicente Rios, 2018. "The Determinants of CO2 Emissions Differentials with Cross-Country Interaction Effects: A Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Discussion Papers 2018/234, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Borice Augustin Ngounou & Edmond Noubissi Domguia & Thierry Messie Pondie & Joseph Pasky Ngameni & Linda Tiague Zanfack, 2025. "Military spending: An obstacle to environmental sustainability in Africa," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 491-515, February.
    8. Andrew Jorgenson & Daniel Auerbach & Brett Clark, 2014. "The (De-) carbonization of urbanization, 1960–2010," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 561-575, December.
    9. Kyle W. Knight & Juliet B. Schor, 2014. "Economic Growth and Climate Change: A Cross-National Analysis of Territorial and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions in High-Income Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-10, June.
    10. Chang, Chun-Ping & Dong, Minyi & Sui, Bo & Chu, Yin, 2019. "Driving forces of global carbon emissions: From time- and spatial-dynamic perspectives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-80.
    11. Liddle, Brantley, 2014. "Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: Evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses," MPRA Paper 61306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Liddle, Brantley, 2013. "Population, Affluence, and Environmental Impact Across Development: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Modeling," MPRA Paper 52088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Wang, Sophie Xuefei & Fu, Yu Benjamin & Zhang, Zhe George, 2015. "Population growth and the environmental Kuznets curve," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 146-165.
    14. Liddle, Brantley, 2015. "What Are the Carbon Emissions Elasticities for Income and Population? Bridging STIRPAT and EKC via robust heterogeneous panel estimates," MPRA Paper 61304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Shahid ALI & Maryam BIBI & Fazli RABBI, 2014. "A New Economic Dimension to the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Estimation of Environmental Efficiency in Case of Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 68-79, January.
    16. Fujii, Hidemichi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Which industry is greener? An empirical study of nine industries in OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 381-388.
    17. Gani, Azmat & Scrimgeour, Frank, 2014. "Modeling governance and water pollution using the institutional ecological economic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 363-372.
    18. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0057107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.