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Economic Conditions Predict Prevalence of West Nile Virus

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  • Ryan J Harrigan
  • Henri A Thomassen
  • Wolfgang Buermann
  • Robert F Cummings
  • Matthew E Kahn
  • Thomas B Smith

Abstract

Understanding the conditions underlying the proliferation of infectious diseases is crucial for mitigating future outbreaks. Since its arrival in North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has led to population-wide declines of bird species, morbidity and mortality of humans, and expenditures of millions of dollars on treatment and control. To understand the environmental conditions that best explain and predict WNV prevalence, we employed recently developed spatial modeling techniques in a recognized WNV hotspot, Orange County, California. Our models explained 85–95% of the variation of WNV prevalence in mosquito vectors, and WNV presence in secondary human hosts. Prevalence in both vectors and humans was best explained by economic variables, specifically per capita income, and by anthropogenic characteristics of the environment, particularly human population and neglected swimming pool density. While previous studies have shown associations between anthropogenic change and pathogen presence, results show that poorer economic conditions may act as a direct surrogate for environmental characteristics related to WNV prevalence. Low-income areas may be associated with higher prevalence for a number of reasons, including variations in property upkeep, microhabitat conditions conducive to viral amplification in both vectors and hosts, host community composition, and human behavioral responses related to differences in education or political participation. Results emphasize the importance and utility of including economic variables in mapping spatial risk assessments of disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan J Harrigan & Henri A Thomassen & Wolfgang Buermann & Robert F Cummings & Matthew E Kahn & Thomas B Smith, 2010. "Economic Conditions Predict Prevalence of West Nile Virus," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-8, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0015437
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0015437
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Milligan, Kevin & Moretti, Enrico & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2004. "Does education improve citizenship? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1667-1695, August.
    2. Shannon L. LaDeau & A. Marm Kilpatrick & Peter P. Marra, 2007. "West Nile virus emergence and large-scale declines of North American bird populations," Nature, Nature, vol. 447(7145), pages 710-713, June.
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    1. Alexander C Keyel & Oliver Elison Timm & P Bryon Backenson & Catharine Prussing & Sarah Quinones & Kathleen A McDonough & Mathias Vuille & Jan E Conn & Philip M Armstrong & Theodore G Andreadis & Laur, 2019. "Seasonal temperatures and hydrological conditions improve the prediction of West Nile virus infection rates in Culex mosquitoes and human case counts in New York and Connecticut," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, June.
    2. Shannon L. LaDeau & Paul T. Leisnham & Dawn Biehler & Danielle Bodner, 2013. "Higher Mosquito Production in Low-Income Neighborhoods of Baltimore and Washington, DC: Understanding Ecological Drivers and Mosquito-Borne Disease Risk in Temperate Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Daniel Wiese & Ananias A Escalante & Heather Murphy & Kevin A Henry & Victor Hugo Gutierrez-Velez, 2019. "Integrating environmental and neighborhood factors in MaxEnt modeling to predict species distributions: A case study of Aedes albopictus in southeastern Pennsylvania," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, October.
    4. Donal Bisanzio & Elisa Martello & Katherine Izenour & Kelly Stevens & Ramandeep Kaur & Benjamin A McKenzie & Moritz Kraemer & Richard Reithinger & Sarah Zohdy, 2021. "Arboviral diseases and poverty in Alabama, 2007–2017," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Brian Becker & Paul T. Leisnham & Shannon L. LaDeau, 2014. "A Tale of Two City Blocks: Differences in Immature and Adult Mosquito Abundances between Socioeconomically Different Urban Blocks in Baltimore (Maryland, USA)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Yuri P Springer & Pieter T J Johnson, 2018. "Large-scale health disparities associated with Lyme disease and human monocytic ehrlichiosis in the United States, 2007–2013," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Jon Andrus & Maria Elena Bottazzi & Jennifer Chow & Karen A Goraleski & Susan P Fisher-Hoch & Jocelyn K Lambuth & Bruce Y Lee & Harold S Margolis & Joseph B McCormick & Peter Melby & Kristy O Murray &, 2013. "Ears of the Armadillo: Global Health Research and Neglected Diseases in Texas," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(6), pages 1-6, June.

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