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A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic

Author

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  • George J Milne
  • Joel K Kelso
  • Heath A Kelly
  • Simon T Huband
  • Jodie McVernon

Abstract

Background: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. Method: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. Results: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R0 in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R0 values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. Conclusion: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.

Suggested Citation

  • George J Milne & Joel K Kelso & Heath A Kelly & Simon T Huband & Jodie McVernon, 2008. "A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(12), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0004005
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0004005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A. T. Cummings & Christophe Fraser & James C. Cajka & Philip C. Cooley & Donald S. Burke, 2006. "Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 442(7101), pages 448-452, July.
    2. Marta C. González & César A. Hidalgo & Albert-László Barabási, 2009. "Understanding individual human mobility patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7235), pages 238-238, March.
    3. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hannah C Moore & Peter Jacoby & Alexandra B Hogan & Christopher C Blyth & Geoffry N Mercer, 2014. "Modelling the Seasonal Epidemics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-8, June.
    2. Tianyou Zhang & Xiuju Fu & Stefan Ma & Gaoxi Xiao & Limsoon Wong & Chee Keong Kwoh & Michael Lees & Gary Kee Khoon Lee & Terence Hung, 2012. "Evaluating Temporal Factors in Combined Interventions of Workforce Shift and School Closure for Mitigating the Spread of Influenza," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Charlotte Jackson & Punam Mangtani & Jeremy Hawker & Babatunde Olowokure & Emilia Vynnycky, 2014. "The Effects of School Closures on Influenza Outbreaks and Pandemics: Systematic Review of Simulation Studies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
    4. Joel K Kelso & Nilimesh Halder & George J Milne, 2010. "The Impact of Case Diagnosis Coverage and Diagnosis Delays on the Effectiveness of Antiviral Strategies in Mitigating Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 2009," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Joel K Kelso & George J Milne, 2014. "A Spatial Simulation Model for the Dispersal of the Bluetongue Vector Culicoides brevitarsis in Australia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-16, August.

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