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Potential Benefits of Cattle Vaccination as a Supplementary Control for Bovine Tuberculosis

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  • Andrew J K Conlan
  • Ellen Brooks Pollock
  • Trevelyan J McKinley
  • Andrew P Mitchell
  • Gareth J Jones
  • Martin Vordermeier
  • James L N Wood

Abstract

Vaccination for the control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is not currently used within any international control program, and is illegal within the EU. Candidate vaccines, based upon Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) all interfere with the action of the tuberculin skin test, which is used to determine if animals, herds and countries are officially bTB-free. New diagnostic tests that Differentiate Infected from Vaccinated Animals (DIVA) offer the potential to introduce vaccination within existing eradication programs. We use within-herd transmission models estimated from historical data from Great Britain (GB) to explore the feasibility of such supplemental use of vaccination. The economic impact of bovine Tuberculosis for farmers is dominated by the costs associated with testing, and associated restrictions on animal movements. Farmers’ willingness to adopt vaccination will require vaccination to not only reduce the burden of infection, but also the risk of restrictions being imposed. We find that, under the intensive sequence of testing in GB, it is the specificity of the DIVA test, rather than the sensitivity, that is the greatest barrier to see a herd level benefit of vaccination. The potential negative effects of vaccination could be mitigated through relaxation of testing. However, this could potentially increase the hidden burden of infection within Officially TB Free herds. Using our models, we explore the range of the DIVA test characteristics necessary to see a protective herd level benefit of vaccination. We estimate that a DIVA specificity of at least 99.85% and sensitivity of >40% is required to see a protective benefit of vaccination with no increase in the risk of missed infection. Data from experimentally infected animals suggest that this target specificity could be achieved in vaccinates using a cocktail of three DIVA antigens while maintaining a sensitivity of 73.3% (95%CI: 61.9, 82.9%) relative to post-mortem detection.Author Summary: Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a major economic disease of livestock worldwide. Despite an intensive, and costly, control program in the United Kingdom, bTB continues to persist. Vaccination can provide some protection to cattle, but is currently illegal within the European Union due to the interaction of BCG with the action of the tuberculin skin test. The EU has signaled that changes in legislation will require field validation of BCG as a supplement to existing controls. A particular concern is that the imperfect sensitivity of prospective DIVA tests for vaccinates may increase the chances of infection being missed within herds. However, we demonstrate that high DIVA specificity will also be essential in order for farmers to see a protective herd level benefit of vaccination in terms of the frequency of tests they are subjected to and number of animals condemned. Field validation of the DIVA test will be an essential prerequisite to use of BCG in the field. Our estimated target specificity provides an important criterion for validation of prospective DIVA tests before deployment in the field.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J K Conlan & Ellen Brooks Pollock & Trevelyan J McKinley & Andrew P Mitchell & Gareth J Jones & Martin Vordermeier & James L N Wood, 2015. "Potential Benefits of Cattle Vaccination as a Supplementary Control for Bovine Tuberculosis," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-27, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pcbi00:1004038
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Bennett & Kelvin Balcombe, 2012. "Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for a Tuberculosis Cattle Vaccine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 408-424, June.
    2. Ryan N Gutenkunst & Joshua J Waterfall & Fergal P Casey & Kevin S Brown & Christopher R Myers & James P Sethna, 2007. "Universally Sloppy Parameter Sensitivities in Systems Biology Models," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(10), pages 1-8, October.
    3. Andrew J K Conlan & Trevelyan J McKinley & Katerina Karolemeas & Ellen Brooks Pollock & Anthony V Goodchild & Andrew P Mitchell & Colin P D Birch & Richard S Clifton-Hadley & James L N Wood, 2012. "Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Jackson, Christopher H, 2008. "Displaying Uncertainty With Shading," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 62(4), pages 340-347.
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