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Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-industrial Europe

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Listed:
  • David Kaniewski

    (CNRS, INP, UPS)

  • Nick Marriner

    (MSHE Ledoux)

Abstract

One of the most devastating environmental consequences of war is the disruption of peacetime human–microbe relationships, leading to outbreaks of infectious diseases. Indirectly, conflicts also have severe health consequences due to population displacements, with a heightened risk of disease transmission. While previous research suggests that conflicts may have accentuated historical epidemics, this relationship has never been quantified. Here, we use annually resolved data to probe the link between climate, human behavior (i.e. conflicts), and the spread of plague epidemics in pre-industrial Europe (AD 1347–1840). We find that AD 1450–1670 was a particularly violent period of Europe’s history, characterized by a mean twofold increase in conflicts. This period was concurrent with steep upsurges in plague outbreaks. Cooler climate conditions during the Little Ice Age further weakened afflicted groups, making European populations less resistant to pathogens, through malnutrition and deteriorating living/sanitary conditions. Our analysis demonstrates that warfare provided a backdrop for significant microbial opportunity in pre-industrial Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • David Kaniewski & Nick Marriner, 2020. "Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-industrial Europe," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:7:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-020-00661-1
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-020-00661-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War, and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 774-811.
    2. Philip Slavin, 2012. "The Great Bovine Pestilence and its economic and environmental consequences in England and Wales, 1318–50," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 65(4), pages 1239-1266, November.
    3. M. J. Keeling & C. A. Gilligan, 2000. "Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague," Nature, Nature, vol. 407(6806), pages 903-906, October.
    4. Davenport, Romola Jane & Satchell, Max & Shaw-Taylor, Leigh Matthew William, 2018. "The geography of smallpox in England before vaccination: A conundrum resolved," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 75-85.
    5. Lee Mordechai & Merle Eisenberg & Timothy P. Newfield & Adam Izdebski & Janet E. Kay & Hendrik Poinar, 2019. "The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(51), pages 25546-25554, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Damette, Olivier & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 295-323.
    2. Chowdhury, Subhasish & Karmakar, Senjuti, 2022. "The Interrelationship between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Conflict Behavior: A Survey," MPRA Paper 113311, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Emile Esmaili & Michael J. Puma & Francis Ludlow & Poul Holm & Eva Jobbova, 2024. "Warfare Ignited Price Contagion Dynamics in Early Modern Europe," Papers 2411.18978, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.

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