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The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Author

Listed:
  • Lee Mordechai

    (National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, MD 21401; History Department, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, 9190501 Jerusalem, Israel)

  • Merle Eisenberg

    (National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, MD 21401; History Department, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544)

  • Timothy P. Newfield

    (History Department, Georgetown University, NW, Washington, DC 20057; Biology Department, Georgetown University, NW, Washington, DC 20057)

  • Adam Izdebski

    (Paleo-Science & History Independent Research Group, Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History, 07745 Jena, Germany; Institute of History, Jagiellonian University, 31-007 Kraków, Poland)

  • Janet E. Kay

    (Society of Fellows in the Liberal Arts, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;)

  • Hendrik Poinar

    (Department of Anthropology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L9, Canada; Department of Biochemistry, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L9, Canada; McMaster Ancient DNA Centre, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L9, Canada; Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L9, Canada)

Abstract

Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee Mordechai & Merle Eisenberg & Timothy P. Newfield & Adam Izdebski & Janet E. Kay & Hendrik Poinar, 2019. "The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(51), pages 25546-25554, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:116:y:2019:p:25546-25554
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Kaniewski & Nick Marriner, 2020. "Conflicts and the spread of plagues in pre-industrial Europe," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Giovanni Zanchetta & Monica Bini & Kevin Bloomfield & Adam Izdebski & Nicola Vivoli & Eleonora Regattieri & Ilaria Isola & Russell N. Drysdale & Petra Bajo & John C. Hellstrom & Robert Wiśniewski & An, 2021. "Beyond one-way determinism: San Frediano’s miracle and climate change in Central and Northern Italy in late antiquity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2020. "Medieval Cities Through the Lens of Urban Economic Theories," Working Papers 2020-9, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    4. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    5. Edward L. Glaeser, 2021. "Urban Resilience," NBER Working Papers 29261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. John Haldon & Merle Eisenberg & Lee Mordechai & Adam Izdebski & Sam White, 2020. "Lessons from the past, policies for the future: resilience and sustainability in past crises," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 287-297, June.
    7. Edward L Glaeser, 2022. "Urban resilience," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(1), pages 3-35, January.
    8. Choudhury, Pranab R. & Ghosh, Ranjan K. & Sindhi, Sumita, 2020. "Covid-19 Crisis, Pandemic Resilience and Linkages to Land: An Exposition," IIMA Working Papers WP 2020-05-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    9. Doug Jones, 2021. "Barbarigenesis and the collapse of complex societies: Rome and after," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-33, September.
    10. A.I. Pogorletskiy, 2020. "Historical Reconstruction of the Impact of Pandemics on the Development of Indirect Taxation," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 19(2), pages 180-207.
    11. McKibbin, Warwick & Fernando, Roshen, 2023. "The global economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Remi Jedwab & Amjad M. Khan & Richard Damania & Jason Russ & Esha D. Zaveri, 2020. "Pandemics, Poverty, and Social Cohesion: Lessons from the Past and Possible Solutions for COVID-19," Working Papers 2020-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    13. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2022. "Medieval cities through the lens of urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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