IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v11y2024i1d10.1057_s41599-024-03220-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bitcoin’s bubbly behaviors: does it resemble other financial bubbles of the past?

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso

    (Faculty of Social and Legal Sciences. Catholic University of Ávila)

  • Javier Jorge-Vázquez

    (Faculty of Social and Legal Sciences. Catholic University of Ávila)

  • Miguel Ángel Echarte Fernández

    (Faculty of Social and Legal Sciences. Catholic University of Ávila)

  • David Sanz-Bas

    (Faculty of Social and Legal Sciences. Catholic University of Ávila)

Abstract

A number of financial bubbles have occurred throughout history. The objective of this study was to identify the main similarities between Bitcoin price behavior during bubble periods and a number of historical bubbles. Once this had been carried out, we aimed to determine whether the solutions adopted in the past would be effective in the present to reduce investors’ risk in this digital asset. This study brings a new approach, as studies have previously been conducted analyzing the similarity of Bitcoin bubbles to other bubbles individually, but these were not conducted in such a broad manner, addressing different types of bubbles, and over such a broad time period. Starting from a dataset with 9967 records, a combined methodology was used. This consisted of an analysis of the standard deviations, the growth rates of the prices of the assets involved, the percentage increase in asset prices from the origin of the bubble to its peak and its fundamental value, and, finally, the bubble index. Lastly, correlation statistical analysis was performed. The results obtained from the combination of the above methods reveal the existence of certain similarities between the Bitcoin bubbles (2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021) and the tulip bubble (1634–1637) and the Mississippi bubble (1719–1720). We find that the vast majority of the measures taken to avoid past bubbles will not be effective now; this is due to the digital and decentralized nature of Bitcoin. A limitation of the study is the difficulty in making a comparison between bubbles that occurred at different historical points in time. However, the results obtained shed light and provide guidance on the actions to be taken by regulators to ensure the protection of investors in this digital asset.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso & Javier Jorge-Vázquez & Miguel Ángel Echarte Fernández & David Sanz-Bas, 2024. "Bitcoin’s bubbly behaviors: does it resemble other financial bubbles of the past?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-03220-0
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-03220-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-024-03220-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-024-03220-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Garcia & Claudio Juan Tessone & Pavlin Mavrodiev & Nicolas Perony, 2014. "The digital traces of bubbles: feedback cycles between socio-economic signals in the Bitcoin economy," Papers 1408.1494, arXiv.org.
    2. Brian M. Lucey & Fergal A. O’Connor, 2013. "Do bubbles occur in the gold price? An investigation of gold lease rates and Markov Switching models," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 13(3), pages 53-63, September.
    3. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2016. "Cash Inflows And Bubbles In Asset Markets With Constant Fundamental Values," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1596-1606, July.
    4. Adämmer, Philipp & Bohl, Martin T., 2015. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 67-76.
    5. Auer, Raphael & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2022. "Distrust or speculation? The socioeconomic drivers of U.S. cryptocurrency investments," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Cretarola, Alessandra & Figà-Talamanca, Gianna, 2020. "Bubble regime identification in an attention-based model for Bitcoin and Ethereum price dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    7. David Sanz Bas, 2020. "Hayek and the cryptocurrency revolution [Hayek y la revolución de las criptomonedas]," Iberian Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Dpto. Historia e Instituciones Económicas I., vol. 7(1), pages 15-28.
    8. Miguel Ángel Echarte Fernández & Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso & Ricardo Reier Forradellas & Javier Jorge-Vázquez, 2022. "From the Great Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Risk of Expansionary Monetary Policies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    10. Jeremy J. Siegel, 2003. "What Is an Asset Price Bubble? An Operational Definition," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 11-24, March.
    11. Frehen, Rik G.P. & Goetzmann, William N. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 2013. "New evidence on the first financial bubble," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 585-607.
    12. Nikola Fabris & Milutin Ješić, 2023. "Are Gold and Bitcoin a Safe Haven for European Indices?," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 12(1), pages 27-44.
    13. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
    14. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Trinh, Kelly, 2021. "Returns, volatility and the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017–18," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    15. Karol Król & Dariusz Zdonek, 2022. "Digital Assets in the Eyes of Generation Z: Perceptions, Outlooks, Concerns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    16. Bouri, Elie & Kamal, Elham & Kinateder, Harald, 2023. "FTX Collapse and systemic risk spillovers from FTX Token to major cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    17. Danilo Petti & Ivan Sergio, 2024. "Bank Crisis Boosts Bitcoin Price," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, March.
    18. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), August.
    19. Anders Johansen & Olivier Ledoit & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Crashes As Critical Points," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 219-255.
    20. Adrian (Wai-Kong) Cheung & Eduardo Roca & Jen-Je Su, 2015. "Crypto-currency bubbles: an application of the Phillips-Shi-Yu (2013) methodology on Mt. Gox bitcoin prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(23), pages 2348-2358, May.
    21. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    22. Richard S. Dale & Johnnie E. V. Johnson & Leilei Tang, 2005. "Financial markets can go mad: evidence of irrational behaviour during the South Sea Bubble," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 58(2), pages 233-271, May.
    23. Tobias A. Huber & Didier Sornette, 2022. "Boom, Bust, and Bitcoin: Bitcoin-Bubbles as Innovation Accelerators," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 113-136, January.
    24. Enoksen, F.A. & Landsnes, Ch.J. & Lučivjanská, K. & Molnár, P., 2020. "Understanding risk of bubbles in cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 129-144.
    25. Adnan Kasman & Oscar Carvallo, 2014. "Financial Stability, Competition and Efficiency in Latin American and Caribbean Banking," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 301-324, November.
    26. David S. Kerr & Karen A. Loveland & Katherine Taken Smith & Lawrence Murphy Smith, 2023. "Cryptocurrency Risks, Fraud Cases, and Financial Performance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, February.
    27. John E. Silvia, 2021. "Financial Markets and Economic Performance," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-76295-7, December.
    28. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    29. Jianjun Miao & Zhouxiang Shen & Pengfei Wang, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1969-1990, May.
    30. Xun Zhang & Fengbin Lu & Rui Tao & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "The time-varying causal relationship between the Bitcoin market and internet attention," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    31. Fletcher, Emily & Larkin, Charles & Corbet, Shaen, 2021. "Countering money laundering and terrorist financing: A case for bitcoin regulation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    32. Sindhuja Ranganathan & Mikko Kivelä & Juho Kanniainen, 2018. "Dynamics of investor spanning trees around dot-com bubble," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, June.
    33. Xiong, Jinwu & Liu, Qing & Zhao, Lei, 2020. "A new method to verify Bitcoin bubbles: Based on the production cost," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    34. Adnan Kasman & Oscar Carvallo, 2014. "Financial stability, competition and efficiency in Latin American and Caribbean banking," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 17, pages 301-324, November.
    35. Huosong Xia & Yangmei Gao & Justin Zuopeng Zhang, 2023. "Understanding the adoption context of China’s digital currency electronic payment," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    36. Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso & Miguel Ángel Echarte Fernández & David Sanz Bas & Jarosław Kaczmarek, 2020. "Reasons Fostering or Discouraging the Implementation of Central Bank-Backed Digital Currency: A Review," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-27, May.
    37. George A. Waters, 2019. "Bubbles and rationality in bitcoin," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(2), July.
    38. Yan Li & Zhicheng Wang & Hongchuan Wang & Meiyu Wu & Lingling Xie, 2021. "Identifying price bubble periods in the Bitcoin market-based on GSADF model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1829-1844, October.
    39. Alexandre Bovet & Carlo Campajola & Jorge F. Lazo & Francesco Mottes & Iacopo Pozzana & Valerio Restocchi & Pietro Saggese & Nicol'o Vallarano & Tiziano Squartini & Claudio J. Tessone, 2018. "Network-based indicators of Bitcoin bubbles," Papers 1805.04460, arXiv.org.
    40. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2022. "The role of media coverage in the bubble formation: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    41. Francisco Javier García-Corral & José Antonio Cordero-García & Jaime de Pablo-Valenciano & Juan Uribe-Toril, 2022. "A bibliometric review of cryptocurrencies: how have they grown?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, December.
    42. Geuder, Julian & Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as financial bubbles: The case of Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    43. David Porter & Vernon Smith, 1994. "Stock market bubbles in the laboratory," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 111-128.
    44. Wang, Shengquan & Chen, Langnan & Xiong, Xiong, 2019. "Asset bubbles, banking stability and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 108-117.
    45. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, 2009. "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Papers 0905.0220, arXiv.org.
    46. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    47. Zheng-Zheng Li & Ran Tao & Chi-Wei Su & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2019. "Does Bitcoin bubble burst?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 91-105, January.
    48. Didier SORNETTE & Ryan WOODARD, 2009. "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-15, Swiss Finance Institute.
    49. Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso & Miguel Ángel Echarte Fernández & David Sanz Bas & Cristina Pérez Rico, 2024. "El Salvador: an analysis of the monetary integration law and the bitcoin law," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 44(1), pages 189-209.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    3. Eray Gemici & Muslum Polat & Remzi Gök & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mohammed Arshad Khan & Yunus Kilic, 2023. "Do Bubbles in the Bitcoin Market Impact Stock Markets? Evidence From 10 Major Stock Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    4. Ozkan Haykir & Ibrahim Yagli, 2022. "Speculative bubbles and herding in cryptocurrencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-33, December.
    5. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Assaf, Ata & Demir, Ender & Ersan, Oguz, 2024. "Detecting and date-stamping bubbles in fan tokens," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 98-113.
    7. Maarten R.C. van Oordt, 2024. "On Bubbles in Cryptocurrency Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-050/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    9. Chaim, Pedro & Laurini, Márcio P., 2019. "Is Bitcoin a bubble?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 222-232.
    10. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2021. "A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    11. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    12. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Georgios Pergeris, 2022. "Did cryptocurrencies exhibit log‐periodic power law signature during the second wave of COVID‐19?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 51(3), November.
    13. Dulani Jayasuriya Daluwathumullagamage & Alexandra Sims, 2021. "Fantastic Beasts: Blockchain Based Banking," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-43, April.
    14. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    15. Lee, Seungho & Meslmani, Nabil El & Switzer, Lorne N., 2020. "Pricing Efficiency and Arbitrage in the Bitcoin Spot and Futures Markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Bernd Süssmuth, 2022. "The mutual predictability of Bitcoin and web search dynamics," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 435-454, April.
    17. Christie Smith & Aaron Kumar, 2018. "Crypto‐Currencies – An Introduction To Not‐So‐Funny Moneys," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 1531-1559, December.
    18. Michael Demmler & Amilcar Orlian Fernández Domínguez, 2021. "Bitcoin and the South Sea Company: A comparative analysis," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(1), pages 197-224, March.
    19. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    20. Imad A. Moosa, 2020. "The bitcoin: a sparkling bubble or price discovery?," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 93-113, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-03220-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.