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The time-varying causal relationship between the Bitcoin market and internet attention

Author

Listed:
  • Xun Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Fengbin Lu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Rui Tao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shouyang Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The increasing attention on Bitcoin since 2013 prompts the issue of possible evidence for a causal relationship between the Bitcoin market and internet attention. Taking the Google search volume index as the measure of internet attention, time-varying Granger causality between the global Bitcoin market and internet attention is examined. Empirical results show a strong Granger causal relationship between internet attention and trading volume. Moreover, they indicate, beginning in early 2018, an even stronger impact of trading volume on internet attention, which is consistent with the rapid increase in Bitcoin users following the 2017 Bitcoin bubble. Although Bitcoin returns are found to strongly affect internet attention, internet attention only occasionally affects Bitcoin returns. Further investigation reveals that interactions between internet attention and returns can be amplified by extreme changes in prices, and internet attention is more likely to lead to returns during Bitcoin bubbles. These empirical findings shed light on cryptocurrency investor attention theory and imply trading strategy in Bitcoin markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Xun Zhang & Fengbin Lu & Rui Tao & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "The time-varying causal relationship between the Bitcoin market and internet attention," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-021-00275-9
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-021-00275-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Fathin Faizah Said & Raja Solan Somasuntharam & Mohd Ridzwan Yaakub & Tamat Sarmidi, 2023. "Impact of Google searches and social media on digital assets’ volatility," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Huaxin Wang-Lu, 2022. "Bitcoin Returns and Public Attention to COVID-19: Do Timing and Individualism Matter?," Papers 2205.04290, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    3. Caporina, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele, 2021. "Time-varying granger causality tests for applications in global crude oil markets: A study on the DCC-MGARCH Hong test," SAFE Working Paper Series 324, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Festus Victor Bekun & Abdulkareem Alhassan & Ilhan Ozturk & Obadiah Jonathan Gimba, 2022. "Explosivity and Time-Varying Granger Causality: Evidence from the Bubble Contagion Effect of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty on Manufacturing Job Postings in the United States," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Wenwen Liu & Jinyu Yang & Jingrui Chen & Lei Xu, 2023. "How Social-Network Attention and Sentiment of Investors Affect Commodity Futures Market Returns: New Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    6. Yu Song & Bo Chen & Xin-Yi Wang, 2023. "Cryptocurrency technology revolution: are Bitcoin prices and terrorist attacks related?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Francisco Javier García-Corral & José Antonio Cordero-García & Jaime de Pablo-Valenciano & Juan Uribe-Toril, 2022. "A bibliometric review of cryptocurrencies: how have they grown?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, December.
    8. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2022. "The role of media coverage in the bubble formation: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Kou, Gang & Yüksel, Serhat & Dinçer, Hasan, 2022. "Inventive problem-solving map of innovative carbon emission strategies for solar energy-based transportation investment projects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    10. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele, 2022. "Time-varying Granger causality tests in the energy markets: A study on the DCC-MGARCH Hong test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    11. Lu Wang & Shan Li & Chao Liang, 2024. "Exploring the impact of oil security attention on oil volatility: A new perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 61-80, April.
    12. Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso & Javier Jorge-Vázquez & Miguel Ángel Echarte Fernández & David Sanz-Bas, 2024. "Bitcoin’s bubbly behaviors: does it resemble other financial bubbles of the past?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Internet attention; Google trends; Time-varying granger causality; Multiple bubbles test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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