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Does Bitcoin bubble burst?

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng-Zheng Li

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Ran Tao

    (Shandong Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau)

  • Chi-Wei Su

    (Qingdao University)

  • Oana-Ramona Lobonţ

    (West University of Timisoara)

Abstract

This paper explores when will occur and collapse in Bitcoin bubbles by applying generalized sup augmented Dickey–Fuller test method proposed by Phillips et al. (Testing for multiple bubbles: historical episodes of exuberance and collapse in the S&P 500. Singapore Management University, Working Paper, No. 04-2013, 2013). The results show that there are six explosive bubbles in China and five bubbles in U.S. market, mostly occur in the period of huge surges in Bitcoin price. This is consistent with the bubble model originated by Blanchard and Watson (Bubbles, rational expectations and financial markets. NBER Working Paper, No. 945 1982) that certain asset price is decomposed into fundamental and the bubble components. In particular, exogenous shocks, including foreign or domestic economic events lead to the origination of bubbles. Serious financial crisis may trigger long-term and large- scale bubbles, while relative not persistence (short-term) bubbles are caused by domestic particular components. It can be inferred that Bitcoin can be used as a hedge against market specific risk. Finally, Bitcoin bubbles would collapse due to the administrative intervention by economic authorities. Thereby, government should lead public expectation to keep the confidence to authority and reduce the speculation behavior to stabilize the asset price and financial market.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng-Zheng Li & Ran Tao & Chi-Wei Su & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2019. "Does Bitcoin bubble burst?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 91-105, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:53:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11135-018-0728-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-018-0728-3
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    3. Taqwa Hariguna & Athapol Ruangkanjanases & Bakri Bin Madon & Khaled Mofawiz Alfawaz, 2023. "Assessing Determinants of Continuance Intention Toward Cryptocurrency Usage: Extending Expectation Confirmation Model With Technology Readiness," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, March.
    4. Leonardo Ieracitano Vieira & Márcio Poletti Laurini, 2023. "Time-varying higher moments in Bitcoin," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 231-260, June.
    5. Kong, Xiaolin & Ma, Chaoqun & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Narayan, Seema & Nguyen, Thong Trung & Baltas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Changes in the market structure and risk management of Bitcoin and its forked coins," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Davide Provenzano & Rodolfo Baggio, 2021. "Complexity traits and synchrony of cryptocurrencies price dynamics," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 941-955, December.
    7. Simona-Vasilica Oprea & Irina Alexandra Georgescu & Adela Bâra, 2024. "Is Bitcoin ready to be a widespread payment method? Using price volatility and setting strategies for merchants," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 1267-1305, June.
    8. Say Keat Ooi & Chai Aun Ooi & Jasmine A. L. Yeap & Tok Hao Goh, 2021. "Embracing Bitcoin: users’ perceived security and trust," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1219-1237, August.
    9. A. V. Biju & Aparna Merin Mathew & P. P. Nithi Krishna & M. P. Akhil, 2022. "Is the future of bitcoin safe? A triangulation approach in the reality of BTC market through a sentiments analysis," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 275-290, December.
    10. Suvvari ANANDARAO & Balaga Mohana RAO & Anoop S KUMAR, 2023. "An enquiry into extreme price movements of the cryptocurrencies in the backdrop of COVID-19," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(635), S), pages 231-238, Summer.
    11. Süssmuth, Bernd, 2019. "Bitcoin and Web Search Query Dynamics: Is the price driving the hype or is the hype driving the price?," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203566, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Sergio Luis Náñez Alonso & Javier Jorge-Vázquez & Miguel Ángel Echarte Fernández & David Sanz-Bas, 2024. "Bitcoin’s bubbly behaviors: does it resemble other financial bubbles of the past?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Bernd Süssmuth, 2022. "The mutual predictability of Bitcoin and web search dynamics," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 435-454, April.
    14. Xu, Lei & Kinkyo, Takuji, 2023. "Hedging effectiveness of bitcoin and gold: Evidence from G7 stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu & Saffet Akdağ & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2021. "The causal nexus of geopolitical risks, consumer and producer confidence indexes: evidence from selected economies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1261-1273, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Price bubble; Speculation; Block chain; GSADF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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