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Pricing Efficiency and Arbitrage in the Bitcoin Spot and Futures Markets

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  • Lee, Seungho
  • Meslmani, Nabil El
  • Switzer, Lorne N.

Abstract

This study examines the pricing efficiency for the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin using spot prices and all CBOE and CME futures contracts traded from January 2018 to March 2019. We find that the futures basis provide some predictive power for future changes in the spot price and in the risk premium. However, the basis of Bitcoin is a biased predictor of the future spot price changes. Cointegration tests also demonstrate that futures prices are biased predictors of spot prices. Deviations from no-arbitrage between spot and futures markets are persistent and widen significantly with Bitcoin thefts (hacks, frauds) as well as alternative cryptocurrency issuances.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Seungho & Meslmani, Nabil El & Switzer, Lorne N., 2020. "Pricing Efficiency and Arbitrage in the Bitcoin Spot and Futures Markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:53:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919309808
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101200
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    Cited by:

    1. Apostolakis, George N., 2024. "Bitcoin price volatility transmission between spot and futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Saggese, Pietro & Belmonte, Alessandro & Dimitri, Nicola & Facchini, Angelo & Böhme, Rainer, 2023. "Arbitrageurs in the Bitcoin ecosystem: Evidence from user-level trading patterns in the Mt. Gox exchange platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 251-270.
    3. Aliu, Florin, 2024. "Do infectious diseases explain Bitcoin price Fluctuations?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Karime Chahuán-Jiménez, 2020. "Correlation between the DJSI Chile and the Financial Indices of Chilean Companies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, November.
    5. Blasco, N. & Corredor, P. & Satrústegui, N., 2023. "Is there an expiration effect in the bitcoin market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 647-663.
    6. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    7. Efe Caglar Cagli & Pinar Evrim Mandaci, 2021. "Information transmission between bitcoin derivatives and spot markets: high-frequency causality analysis with Fourier approximation," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 394-402.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; cryptocurrency; speculation; efficient markets; futures arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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