IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/marecl/v19y2017i1d10.1057_s41278-016-0051-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting container shipping freight rates for the Far East – Northern Europe trade lane

Author

Listed:
  • Ziaul Haque Munim

    (University of Agder)

  • Hans-Joachim Schramm

    (WU Vienna University of Economics and Business
    Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

This study introduces a state-of-the-art volatility forecasting method for container shipping freight rates. Over the last decade, the container shipping industry has become very unpredictable. The demolition of the shipping conferences system in 2008 for all trades calling a port in the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis in 2009 have affected the container shipping freight market adversely towards a depressive and non-stable market environment with heavily fluctuating freight rate movements. At the same time, the approaches of forecasting container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have been rather limited. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss contemporary container freight rate dynamics in an attempt to forecast for the Far East to Northern Europe trade lane. Methodology-wise, we employ autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as well as the combination of ARIMA and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model, which we call ARIMARCH. We observe that ARIMARCH model provides comparatively better results than the existing freight rate forecasting models while performing short-term forecasts on a weekly as well as monthly level. We also observe remarkable influence of recurrent general rate increases on the container freight rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziaul Haque Munim & Hans-Joachim Schramm, 2017. "Forecasting container shipping freight rates for the Far East – Northern Europe trade lane," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 106-125, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0051-7
    DOI: 10.1057/s41278-016-0051-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41278-016-0051-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41278-016-0051-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shun Chen & Hilde Meersman & Eddy van de Voorde, 2010. "Dynamic interrelationships in returns and volatilities between Capesize and Panamax markets," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 12(1), pages 65-90, March.
    2. Michael Fung, 2014. "Ocean Carriers’ Collusion Under Antitrust Immunity: Evidence of Asymmetric Pass-Through," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 45(1), pages 59-77, August.
    3. Marlow, Peter & Nair, Rawindaran, 2008. "Service contracts--An instrument of international logistics supply chain: Under United States and European Union regulatory frameworks," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 489-496, May.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. Renato Midoro & Alessandro Pitto, 2000. "A critical evaluation of strategic alliances in liner shipping," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 31-40.
    7. Pierre Cariou & Ali Cheaitou, 2014. "Cascading effects, network configurations and optimal transshipment volumes in liner shipping," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 16(3), pages 321-342, September.
    8. Wang, Dong-Hua & Chen, Chung-Ching & Lai, Cheng-Sheng, 2011. "The rationale behind and effects of Bunker Adjustment Factors," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 467-474.
    9. Claudio Ferrari & Francesco Parola & Alessio Tei, 2015. "Determinants of slow steaming and implications on service patterns," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 636-652, October.
    10. Meifeng Luo & Lixian Fan & Liming Liu, 2009. "An econometric analysis for container shipping market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 507-523, December.
    11. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Visvikis, Ilias D. & Batchelor, Roy A., 2004. "Over-the-counter forward contracts and spot price volatility in shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 273-296, July.
    12. Slack, Brian & Gouvernal, Elisabeth, 2011. "Container freight rates and the role of surcharges," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1482-1489.
    13. Batchelor, Roy & Alizadeh, Amir & Visvikis, Ilias, 2007. "Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 101-114.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Manolis Kavussanos & Ilias Visvikis & Dimitris Dimitrakopoulos, 2010. "Information linkages between Panamax freight derivatives and commodity derivatives markets," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 12(1), pages 91-110, March.
    16. Simone Caschili & Francesca Medda & Francesco Parola & Claudio Ferrari, 2014. "An Analysis of Shipping Agreements: The Cooperative Container Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 357-377, December.
    17. Slack, Brian, 2010. "Battening down the hatches: How should the maritime industries weather the financial tsunami?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 4-9.
    18. K P B Cullinane & K J Mason & M Cape, 1999. "A Comparison of Models for Forecasting the Baltic Freight Index: Box-Jenkins Revisited," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 1(2), pages 15-39, December.
    19. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    20. Peter Nielsen & Liping Jiang & Niels Gorm Malý Rytter & Gang Chen, 2014. "An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit's influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 667-682, December.
    21. Panayides, Photis M. & Wiedmer, Robert, 2011. "Strategic alliances in container liner shipping," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-38.
    22. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    23. Shun Chen & Hilde Meersman & Eddy van de Voorde, 2012. "Forecasting spot rates at main routes in the dry bulk market," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 14(4), pages 498-537, December.
    24. Mike Fusillo, 2004. "Is Liner Shipping Supply Fixed?," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 6(3), pages 220-235, September.
    25. Kevin X. Li & Guanqiu Qi & Wenming Shi & Zhongzhi Yang & Hee-Seok Bang & Su-Han Woo & Tsz Leung Yip, 2014. "Spillover effects and dynamic correlations between spot and forward tanker freight markets," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 683-696, December.
    26. Stavros Karamperidis & Elizabeth Jackson & John Mangan, 2013. "The use of indices in the maritime transport sector," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 339-350, July.
    27. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ziaul Haque Munim & Hans-Joachim Schramm, 0. "Forecasting container freight rates for major trade routes: a comparison of artificial neural networks and conventional models," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 0, pages 1-18.
    2. Zhu, Siying & Jia, Shuai & Sun, Qinghe & Meng, Qiang, 2023. "An empirical study of China–Singapore International Land–Sea Trade Corridor: Analysis from supply and demand sides," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Yanhui Chen & Ailing Feng & Shun Chen & Jackson Jinhong Mi, 2024. "Forecasting the containerized freight index with AIS data: A novel information combination method based on gray incidence analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 802-815, April.
    4. Ziaul Haque Munim & Hans-Joachim Schramm, 2018. "The impacts of port infrastructure and logistics performance on economic growth: the mediating role of seaborne trade," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Ziaul Haque Munim & Hans-Joachim Schramm, 2021. "Forecasting container freight rates for major trade routes: a comparison of artificial neural networks and conventional models," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 310-327, June.
    6. Zaili Yang & Esin Erol Mehmed, 2019. "Artificial neural networks in freight rate forecasting," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(3), pages 390-414, September.
    7. Saeed, Naima & Nguyen, Su & Cullinane, Kevin & Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem, 2023. "Forecasting container freight rates using the Prophet forecasting method," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 86-107.
    8. Svetlana Avdasheva & Svetlana Golovanova & Gyuzel Yusupova, 2019. "Advance freight rate announcements (GRI) in liner shipping: European and Russian regulatory settlements compared," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(2), pages 192-206, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ziaul Haque Munim & Hans-Joachim Schramm, 0. "Forecasting container freight rates for major trade routes: a comparison of artificial neural networks and conventional models," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 0, pages 1-18.
    2. Ziaul Haque Munim & Hans-Joachim Schramm, 2021. "Forecasting container freight rates for major trade routes: a comparison of artificial neural networks and conventional models," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 310-327, June.
    3. Saeed, Naima & Nguyen, Su & Cullinane, Kevin & Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem, 2023. "Forecasting container freight rates using the Prophet forecasting method," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 86-107.
    4. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    5. Batchelor, Roy & Alizadeh, Amir & Visvikis, Ilias, 2007. "Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 101-114.
    6. Angelopoulos, Jason & Sahoo, Satya & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2020. "Commodity and transportation economic market interactions revisited: New evidence from a dynamic factor model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. repec:jss:jstsof:27:i04 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pfaff, Bernhard, 2008. "VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i04).
    9. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. Michael Andersen & Robert Subbaraman, 1996. "Share Prices and Investment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9610, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas, 1995. "Cointegration and market efficiency: a time series analysis of the Greek drachma," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(8), pages 271-277.
    12. Amir H. Alizadeh & Roar Os Ådland & Steen Koekebakker, 2007. "Predictive power and unbiasedness of implied forward charter rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 385-403.
    13. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    14. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Mondher Bellalah & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "The comovements in international stock markets: new evidence from Latin American emerging countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1323-1328.
    15. Hassink, W.H.J. & Broersma, L., 1993. "Labour demand and job-to-job movement : macro-consequences as a result from micro-economic behaviour," Serie Research Memoranda 0001, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    16. Zaili Yang & Esin Erol Mehmed, 2019. "Artificial neural networks in freight rate forecasting," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(3), pages 390-414, September.
    17. P. J. Dawson & A. L. Tiffin & B. White, 2000. "Optimal Hedging Ratios for Wheat and Barley at the LIFFE: A GARCH Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 147-161, May.
    18. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    20. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Huang, Chih-Yueh & van Dellen, Stefan, 2015. "A regime switching approach for hedging tanker shipping freight rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 44-59.
    21. K. Lebedeva, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Russian Financial Markets’ Liquidity and Returns," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(3), pages 5-31.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0051-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.