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Dynamic interrelationships in returns and volatilities between Capesize and Panamax markets

Author

Listed:
  • Shun Chen

    (Department of Maritime Technology and Transportation, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands)

  • Hilde Meersman

    (Department of Transport and Regional Economics, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium. E-mails: hilde.meersman@ua.ac.be; eddy.vandevoorde@ua.ac.be)

  • Eddy van de Voorde

    (Department of Transport and Regional Economics, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium. E-mails: hilde.meersman@ua.ac.be; eddy.vandevoorde@ua.ac.be)

Abstract

This article investigates the interrelationships in daily returns and volatilities between Capesize and Panamax price series in four major trading routes, the transatlantic, the fronthaul, the transpacific and the backhaul, during the sample period from 1999 to 2008. The sample is split into two sub-periods: the first runs from 3 January 1999 to 24 December 2002 and the second is from 2 January 2003 to 29 August 2008, because of the substantially different economic conditions and market features over each of these periods. Cointegration and causality tests have been made for the price series over two sub-periods and yield mixed results. The volatility spillovers between Capesize and Panamax markets are investigated by employing an extended bivariate ECM-GARCH model. The results, in terms of returns and volatilities, imply that the dynamics between the two markets change across time on different trading routes. The findings of this study contain useful information for both shipowners and charterers to mitigate risks or to make extra profits by switching between the two markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Shun Chen & Hilde Meersman & Eddy van de Voorde, 2010. "Dynamic interrelationships in returns and volatilities between Capesize and Panamax markets," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 12(1), pages 65-90, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:12:y:2010:i:1:p:65-90
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    Cited by:

    1. Lim, Kian Guan & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Yap, Nelson, 2019. "Understanding the fundamentals of freight markets volatility," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-15.
    2. Bai, Xiwen & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2021. "Freight rate co-movement and risk spillovers in the product tanker shipping market: A copula analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    4. Lin, Arthur J. & Chang, Hai Yen & Hsiao, Jung Lieh, 2019. "Does the Baltic Dry Index drive volatility spillovers in the commodities, currency, or stock markets?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 265-283.
    5. Ziaul Haque Munim & Hans-Joachim Schramm, 2017. "Forecasting container shipping freight rates for the Far East – Northern Europe trade lane," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 106-125, March.
    6. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2017. "Herd behavior in the drybulk market: an empirical analysis of the decision to invest in new and retire existing fleet capacity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 36-51.
    7. Chen, Yufeng & Xu, Jing & Miao, Jiafeng, 2023. "Dynamic volatility contagion across the Baltic dry index, iron ore price and crude oil price under the COVID-19: A copula-VAR-BEKK-GARCH-X approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2016. "Dynamic volatility spillovers across shipping freight markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 90-111.
    9. Ioannis Karaoulanis & Theodore Pelagidis, 2021. "Panamax markets behaviour: explaining volatility and expectations," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-24, December.
    10. Alexandros M. Goulielmos, 2015. "The Multi-faceted Character of Risk in Maritime Freight Markets (Panamax) 1996-2012," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(1-2), pages 67-86, January-M.
    11. Ko, Byoung Wook, 2010. "An application of dynamic factor model to dry Bulk Market - focusing on the analysis of synchronicity and idiosyncrasy in the sub-markets with different ship - size," MPRA Paper 32572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bai, Xiwen, 2021. "Tanker freight rates and economic policy uncertainty: A wavelet-based copula approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    13. Pelagidis, Theodore & Panagiotopoulos, George, 2019. "Forward Freight Agreements and Market Transparency in the Capesizs Sector," MPRA Paper 107035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Angelopoulos, Jason & Sahoo, Satya & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2020. "Commodity and transportation economic market interactions revisited: New evidence from a dynamic factor model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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