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An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit's influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

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  • Peter Nielsen
  • Liping Jiang
  • Niels Gorm Malý Rytter
  • Gang Chen

Abstract

This paper evaluates the influence of forecast horizon and observation fit on the robustness and performance of a specific freight rate forecast model used in the liner shipping industry. In the first stage of the research, a forecast model used to predict container freight rate development is presented by exploring the relationship between individual company's rates and aggregated market rates, and thus assists in dealing with uncertainty and market volatility for a given business situation. In the second stage, a design of experiment approach is applied to highlight the influence of the forecast horizon and observation fit and their interactions on the forecast model's performance. The results underline the complicated nature of creating a suitable forecast model by balancing business needs, a desire to fit a good model and achieve high accuracy. There is strong empirical evidence from this study; that a robust model is preferable, that overfitting is a true danger, and that a balance must be achieved between forecast horizon and the number of observations used to fit the model. In addition, methodological guidance has also been provided on how to test, design, and choose the superior model for business needs.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Nielsen & Liping Jiang & Niels Gorm Malý Rytter & Gang Chen, 2014. "An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit's influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 667-682, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:41:y:2014:i:7:p:667-682
    DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2014.960499
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziaul Haque Munim & Hans-Joachim Schramm, 2017. "Forecasting container shipping freight rates for the Far East – Northern Europe trade lane," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 106-125, March.
    2. Chen, Gang & Rytter, Niels G.M. & Jiang, Liping & Nielsen, Peter & Jensen, Lars, 2017. "Pre-announcements of price increase intentions in liner shipping spot markets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 109-125.
    3. Saeed, Naima & Nguyen, Su & Cullinane, Kevin & Gekara, Victor & Chhetri, Prem, 2023. "Forecasting container freight rates using the Prophet forecasting method," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 86-107.
    4. Pawel Sitek & Jarosław Wikarek, 2019. "Capacitated vehicle routing problem with pick-up and alternative delivery (CVRPPAD): model and implementation using hybrid approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 273(1), pages 257-277, February.
    5. Ruina Yang & Chung-Yee Lee & Qian Liu & Song Zheng, 2019. "A carrier–shipper contract under asymmetric information in the ocean transport industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 273(1), pages 377-408, February.

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