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The efficient frontier for spot and forward purchases: an application to electricity

Author

Listed:
  • C-K Woo

    (Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.)

  • I Horowitz

    (University of Florida)

  • B Horii

    (Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.)

  • R I Karimov

    (Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.)

Abstract

A local electricity distribution company (LDC) can reduce its exposure to the inherent risks of spot-price volatility and uncertain future demand via forward contracts. Management's problem is to determine the optimal forward-contract purchase. We propose a practical three-stage approach for dealing with the problem. The first stage determines an optimal purchase by solving a cost-constrained risk-minimization problem. The second stage derives the efficient frontier of tradeoffs between expected cost and cost risk from the first-stage solution, at various bounds on the expected cost. The optimal solution is found by melding the frontier with management's risk preferences. In the third stage, the model's parameters are estimated from data typically available to an LDC and used to determine its forward-contract purchase.

Suggested Citation

  • C-K Woo & I Horowitz & B Horii & R I Karimov, 2004. "The efficient frontier for spot and forward purchases: an application to electricity," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(11), pages 1130-1136, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:55:y:2004:i:11:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601769
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601769
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    Cited by:

    1. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald & Schlichter, Felix, 2009. "Electricity portfolio management: Optimal peak/off-peak allocations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 169-174, January.
    2. H. Qi & C. K. Woo & K. H. Cao & J. Zarnikau & R. Li, 2024. "Price responsiveness of solar and wind capacity demands," Post-Print hal-04597188, HAL.
    3. Woo, Chi-Keung & Olson, Arne & Horowitz, Ira & Luk, Stephen, 2006. "Bi-directional causality in California's electricity and natural-gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2060-2070, October.
    4. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    5. Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J. & Schlichter, F., 2007. "Hedging Exposure to Electricity Price Risk in a Value at Risk Framework," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-013-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    6. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    7. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
    8. Woo, C.K. & Horowitz, I. & Moore, J. & Pacheco, A., 2011. "The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3939-3944, July.
    9. Chi-Keung Woo & Jay Zarnikau & Asher Tishler & Kang Hua Cao, 2022. "Insuring a Small Retail Electric Provider’s Procurement Cost Risk in Texas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    11. Brown, D.P. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S., 2020. "Residential electricity pricing in Texas's competitive retail market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Rubin, Ofir David, 2010. "Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002361, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Zare, Kazem & Moghaddam, Mohsen Parsa & Sheikh El Eslami, Mohammad Kazem, 2010. "Electricity procurement for large consumers based on Information Gap Decision Theory," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 234-242, January.
    14. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    15. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
    16. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    17. Deng, Shi-Jie & Xu, Li, 2009. "Mean-risk efficient portfolio analysis of demand response and supply resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1523-1529.
    18. Kang Hua Cao & Han Qi & Chi-Keung Woo & Jay Zarnikau & Raymond Li, 2024. "Efficient Frontiers for Short-term Sales of Spot and Forward Wind Energy in Texas," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(6), pages 37-60, November.
    19. Yu, Dongmin & liu, Huanan & Bresser, Charis, 2018. "Peak load management based on hybrid power generation and demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 969-985.
    20. Woo, C.K. & Kollman, E. & Orans, R. & Price, S. & Horii, B., 2008. "Now that California has AMI, what can the state do with it?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1366-1374, April.
    21. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    22. K. H. Cao & H. Qi & C. K. Woo & J. Zarnikau & R. Li, 2024. "Efficient frontiers for short-term sales of spot and forward wind energy in Texas," Post-Print hal-04761181, HAL.
    23. Palacio, Sebastián M., 2020. "Predicting collusive patterns in a liberalized electricity market with mandatory auctions of forward contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    24. Zheng Gong & Carmine Ventre & John O'Hara, 2021. "The Efficient Hedging Frontier with Deep Neural Networks," Papers 2104.05280, arXiv.org.
    25. Woo, C.K. & Olson, A. & Horowitz, I., 2006. "Market efficiency, cross hedging and price forecasts: California's natural-gas markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1290-1304.

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