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Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas

Author

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  • Zarnikau, J.
  • Woo, C.K.
  • Zhu, S.
  • Tsai, C.H.

Abstract

Applying a regression-based approach to a newly developed sample of over 60,000 hourly observations for 01/01/2011–12/30/2017, we answer the question: what moves the day-ahead market (DAM) prices for energy and ancillary services (AS) and the real-time market (RTM) price for energy in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)? Our answer comprises the following findings that capture the interdependence of ERCOT's energy and AS products: (1) the DAM energy price increases with the day-ahead forecasts of natural gas price, system load and AS requirements but declines with nuclear and wind generation's forecasts; (2) the AS prices increase with the DAM energy price and the AS procurement forecasts but decline with the AS offer forecasts; and (3) the RTM energy price increases with the DAM energy price but diverges from the DAM energy price due to forecasting errors related to the DAM energy price's fundamental drivers. These findings imply that Texas can reduce the prices for day-ahead energy, day-ahead AS and real-time energy via wind generation development and demand-side-management. Further, Texas can improve its electricity trading efficiency by improving ERCOT's forecast accuracy to narrow the RTM energy price's divergence from the DAM energy price.

Suggested Citation

  • Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:125:y:2019:i:c:p:418-428
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.043
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    13. Brown, D.P. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S., 2020. "Residential electricity pricing in Texas's competitive retail market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    14. Arcos-Vargas, A. & Nuñez, F. & Román-Collado, R., 2020. "Short-term effects of PV integration on global welfare and CO2 emissions. An application to the Iberian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    15. Kang Hua Cao & Han Qi & Chi-Keung Woo & Jay Zarnikau & Raymond Li, 2024. "Efficient Frontiers for Short-term Sales of Spot and Forward Wind Energy in Texas," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(6), pages 37-60, November.
    16. Doering, Kenji & Sendelbach, Luke & Steinschneider, Scott & Lindsay Anderson, C., 2021. "The effects of wind generation and other market determinants on price spikes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    17. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Tishler, Asher & Zarnikau, Jay, 2022. "How price responsive is industrial demand for natural gas in the United States?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S. & Woo, C.K. & Tsai, C.H., 2020. "Texas's operating reserve demand curve's generation investment incentive," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    20. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2019. "Renewable energy's vanishing premium in Texas's retail electricity pricing plans," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 764-770.
    21. K. H. Cao & H. Qi & C. K. Woo & J. Zarnikau & R. Li, 2024. "Efficient frontiers for short-term sales of spot and forward wind energy in Texas," Post-Print hal-04761181, HAL.
    22. Damien, Paul & Fuentes-García, Ruth & Mena, Ramsés H. & Zarnikau, Jay, 2019. "Impacts of day-ahead versus real-time market prices on wholesale electricity demand in Texas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 259-272.
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    24. Zarnikau, J. & Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Woo, C.K., 2023. "Has retail competition reduced residential electricity prices in Texas?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    D44; D47; G13; G14; Q41; Electricity products; Day-ahead market; Real-time market; Ancillary services; ERCOT;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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