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Market efficiency, cross hedging and price forecasts: California's natural-gas markets

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  • Woo, C.K.
  • Olson, A.
  • Horowitz, I.

Abstract

An extensive North American pipeline grid that physically integrates individual natural-gas markets, in conjunction with economic ties binding the California markets to those at Henry Hub, Louisiana and the New York mercantile exchange via an array of financial instruments, suggests that the spot prices at Henry Hub will impact those in California. We verify the suggestion via a partial-adjustment regression model, thus affirming that California traders can exploit the cross-hedging opportunities made available to them via market integration with Henry Hub, and that they can accurately forecast the price they will have to pay to meet future demand based solely on the price of futures at Henry Hub and the price of a California natural-gas basis swaps contract.

Suggested Citation

  • Woo, C.K. & Olson, A. & Horowitz, I., 2006. "Market efficiency, cross hedging and price forecasts: California's natural-gas markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1290-1304.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:31:y:2006:i:8:p:1290-1304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2005.05.003
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    Cited by:

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    3. Li, Jinchao & Wu, Qianqian & Tian, Yu & Fan, Liguo, 2021. "Monthly Henry Hub natural gas spot prices forecasting using variational mode decomposition and deep belief network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2011. "A dynamic hedging approach for refineries in multiproduct oil markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-887.
    5. Luděk Benada, 2018. "Comparison of the Impact of Econometric Models on Hedging Performance by Crude Oil and Natural Gas," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 423-429.
    6. Pousinho, H.M.I. & Mendes, V.M.F. & Catalão, J.P.S., 2011. "A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4935-4942.
    7. Qin Lu & Jingwen Liao & Kechi Chen & Yanhui Liang & Yu Lin, 2024. "Predicting Natural Gas Prices Based on a Novel Hybrid Model with Variational Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(2), pages 639-678, February.
    8. Moting Su & Zongyi Zhang & Ye Zhu & Donglan Zha, 2019. "Data-Driven Natural Gas Spot Price Forecasting with Least Squares Regression Boosting Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-13, March.
    9. Xie, Gang & Jiang, Fuxin & Zhang, Chengyuan, 2023. "A secondary decomposition-ensemble methodology for forecasting natural gas prices using multisource data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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