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The International Transmission of US Tax Shocks: A Proxy-SVAR Approach

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  • Luca Metelli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Filippo Natoli

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We investigate the international propagation of tax rate shocks originating in the USA using a global vector error correction model. We identify shocks to corporate and personal income tax rates by using narrative series as external instruments, following the proxy-SVAR methodology. The main results are the following: (1) In terms of fiscal multiplier, domestic effects of corporate tax shocks are stronger than those of personal income tax shock; (2) spillovers are in most cases positive and significant, albeit of small size; (3) the boost to exports in recipient economies, stimulated both by stronger US demand and, to a lesser extent, by real exchange rate depreciation, is the main transmission channel; and financial channels (through long-term interest rates) also play a role.

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  • Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2021. "The International Transmission of US Tax Shocks: A Proxy-SVAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 325-356, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:69:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1057_s41308-021-00136-6
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-021-00136-6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International fiscal spillovers; Proxy SVAR; GVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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