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Multilateral Economic Cooperation and the International Transmission of Fiscal Policy

In: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Gernot J. Müller

Abstract

During the global financial crisis 2007-2009 fiscal policy was widely used as a stabilization tool. Policymakers allowed a large build-up of public debt resulting from both automatic and discretionary expansionary measures. At the same time, calls for policy coordination stressed that international spillovers of fiscal policy might be sizeable. We reconsider the case for fiscal coordination by providing new evidence on the cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal measures. We rely on a vector autoregression model as well as on a quantitative business cycle model. We find that i) large spillover effects cannot be ruled out and, in contrast to conventional wisdom, ii) financial factors rather than trade flows lie at the heart of the international transmission mechanism. We discuss the implications of these results for policy coordination when markets price sovereign default risk, and put pressure on governments for implementing budget consolidation measures.
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  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Multilateral Economic Cooperation and the International Transmission of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 257-297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12593
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2018. "Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2018/103, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    3. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2021. "The International Transmission of US Tax Shocks: A Proxy-SVAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 325-356, June.
    4. Stephen Nicar, 2015. "International Spillovers from U.S. Fiscal Policy Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1081-1097, November.
    5. Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Alexandru BADIU, 2017. "Forecasting Foreign Economic Relations," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 47-55, April.
    6. Michael B. Devereux, 2018. "International Fiscal Spillovers: A Review Essay," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 34, pages 29-50.
    7. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2014. "The Effects of Government Spending in a Small Open Economy within a Monetary Union," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Daragh Clancy & Pascal Jacquinot & Matija Lozej, 2015. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in a small open economy within a monetary union," Working Papers 4, European Stability Mechanism.
    11. Natoli, Filippo & Metelli, Luca, 2018. "The international transmission of US fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 84207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Philipp Pfeiffer & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2021. "Quantifying Spillovers of Next Generation EU Investment," European Economy - Discussion Papers 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2015. "The international effect of US government expenditure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 63-73.
    14. Deniz Sevinc & Edgar Mata Flores, 2021. "Macroeconomic and financial implications of multi‐dimensional interdependencies between OECD countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 741-776, January.
    15. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2016. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in small open economies within a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 305-326.
    16. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Philippas, Dionisis, 2015. "Strategic interactions of fiscal policies in Europe: A global VAR perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 49-76.
    17. Born, Benjamin & Juessen, Falko & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 446-465.
    18. Madeline Hanson & Daniela Hauser & Romanos Priftis, 2021. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes," Staff Working Papers 21-41, Bank of Canada.
    19. Jingchao Li, 2022. "Fiscal shocks and spillovers in a dynamic two-country model," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 53-83, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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