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Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World

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  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Abstract

While theoretical models consistently predict that government spending shocks should lead to appreciation of the domestic currency, empirical studies have been stubbornly finding depreciation. Using daily data on U.S. defense spending (announced and actual payments), we document that the dollar immediately and strongly appreciates after announcements about future government spending. In contrast, actual payments lead to no discernible effect on the exchange rate. We examine responses of other variables at the daily frequency and explore how the response of the exchange rate to fiscal shocks varies over the business cycle as well as at the zero lower bound and in normal times.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World," NBER Working Papers 21100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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