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Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  • Pietro Dallari
  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Abstract

We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significant and tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links as well, as for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries. The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission, although strong trade integration among countries in the euro area and spillback effects tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases. A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time, with larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers between 2011 and 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Pietro Dallari & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak," IMF Working Papers 2017/241, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/241
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel, 2021. "Establishing a Fiscal Dialogue in Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(3), pages 339-355, September.
    2. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli, 2021. "The International Transmission of US Tax Shocks: A Proxy-SVAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 325-356, June.
    3. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 259-290, April.
    4. Vanessa Kunzmann, 2023. "Estimating Regime Dependent Fiscal Spillover Effects in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 227, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    5. Sascha Mierzwa, 2021. "Spillovers from Tax Shocks to the Euro Area," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202133, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Philipp Pfeiffer & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2021. "Quantifying Spillovers of Next Generation EU Investment," European Economy - Discussion Papers 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Alloza, Mario & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Jacquinot, Pascal & Schmidt, Katja, 2020. "Fiscal expenditure spillovers in the euro area: an empirical and model-based assessment," Occasional Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    9. Badarau, Cristina & Huart, Florence & Sangaré, Ibrahima, 2021. "Macroeconomic and policy implications of eurobonds," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2017. "Addressing the Core-Periphery Imbalances in Europe: Resource Misallocation and Expansionary Fiscal Policies," EconPol Working Paper 6, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2018 - Wirtschaft im Euroraum überschreitet Normalauslastung," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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