IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tsy/wpaper/wpaper_tsy_wp_2005_4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The evolution of fiscal policy in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • David Gruen

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Amanda Sayegh

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of Australian fiscal policy and the fiscal policy framework over the past quarter century. Following the early 1980s recession, a sustained fiscal consolidation saw the general government budget balance (for all levels of government) move from a deficit of 3 1/2 per cent of GDP in 1983-84 to a surplus of 1 3/4 per cent five years later in 1988-89. A severe recession in the early 1990s interrupted this process, and the budget returned to sizeable deficits which peaked at 4 3/4 per cent of GDP in 1992-93. The second half of the 1990s saw a repeat of the experience a decade earlier, with the budget returning to surplus in 1997-98. In contrast to the 1980s experience, however, the general government sector (for all levels of government) has recorded surpluses for the subsequent eight years to the present. The paper outlines Australia’s macroeconomic experience over this time and argues that there have been two significant medium-term factors motivating the extended periods of fiscal consolidation. The first factor, relevant since the mid 1980s, has been the large Australian current account deficits since that time, and the associated build-up of net foreign liabilities. The second factor, which entered the public debate more recently, is a desire to provide fiscal policy flexibility to respond to the ageing of the population and the projected rising public cost of health services-both influences that are likely to be of increasing importance over the next generation or so. The paper discusses the introduction and evolution of Australia’s medium-term fiscal framework which has been put in place to respond to these challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • David Gruen & Amanda Sayegh, 2005. "The evolution of fiscal policy in Australia," Treasury Working Papers 2005-04, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Nov 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2005_4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/1033/PDF/TW_2005-04.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Makin, A.J., 1988. "Targeting Australia’s Current Account: A New Mercantilism?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-212.
    2. David Gruen & Glenn Stevens, 2000. "Australian Macroeconomic Performances and Policies in the 1990s," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Sona Shrestha (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 1990s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. J. D. Pitchford, 1989. "A Sceptical View of Australia's Current Account and Debt Problem," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(2), pages 5-14, June.
    4. Adrian Orr & Malcolm Edey & Michael Kennedy, 1995. "The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates: 17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 155, OECD Publishing.
    5. David Gruen & Matthew Garbutt, 2004. "The long term fiscal implications of raising Australian labour force participation or productivity growth," Treasury Working Papers 2004-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Apr 2004.
    6. Guy Debelle & Gabriele Galati, 2007. "Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 989-1013, November.
    7. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Labor and Demography 0506001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Edward Nelson, 2005. "Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    9. Productivity Commission, 2005. "Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 16, July.
    10. W. Max Corden, 1991. "Does The Current Account Matter? The Old View And The New," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, September.
    11. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Output Gaps In Real Time: How Reliable Are They?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(252), pages 6-18, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    2. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchoring fiscal expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 17-42, September.
    3. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland & Roberto Casarin & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2020. "Oil and Fiscal Policy Regimes," Working Papers No 11/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
      • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Roberto Casarin & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Oil and fiscal policy regimes," CAMA Working Papers 2021-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2008. "Current Account Deficits: Tha Australian Debate," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 13, pages 491-535, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Jonathan Kearns & Philip Lowe, 2011. "Australia's Prosperous 2000s: Housing and the Mining Boom," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 2000s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Davis, Nicholas & Bisman, Jayne E., 2015. "Annual reporting by an Australian government department: A critical longitudinal study of accounting and organisational change," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 129-143.
    7. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Safdar Ullah Khan & Habib-Ur Rahman, 2021. "Analysis of Australia’s Fiscal Vulnerability to Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, June.
    8. Neil Dias Karunaratne, 2008. "The Polemics and Empirics of the Sustainability of Australia's Current Account Deficit - Revisited," Discussion Papers Series 364, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Christopher Allsopp & David Vines, 2005. "The Macroeconomic Role of Fiscal Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 21(4), pages 485-508, Winter.
    10. Phil Garton & Matt Sedgwick & Siddharth Shirodkar, 2010. "Australia’s current account deficit in a global imbalances context," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 1, pages 29-50, April.
    11. Mr. Craig Beaumont & Li Cui, 2007. "Conquering Fear of Floating: Australia's Successful Adaptation to a Flexible Exchange Rate," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2007/002, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Phil Garton, 2007. "Comparing the net foreign liability dynamics of Australia and the United States," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 101-117, December.
    13. Tony McDonald & Yong Hong Yan & Blake Ford & David Stephan, 2010. "Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 3, pages 51-79, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rochelle Belkar & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Kent, 2008. "Current Account Deficits: Tha Australian Debate," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 13, pages 491-535, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    3. Ian Henderson, 2001. "Ted Evans to the Rescue," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 8(3), pages 277-288.
    4. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.
    5. Diana Warren, 2008. "Retirement Expectations and Labour Force Transitions: The Experience of the Baby Boomer Generation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Anthony Harris & Anurag Sharma, 2018. "Estimating the future health and aged care expenditure in Australia with changes in morbidity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-10, August.
    7. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Changes in the taxation of private pensions: Macroeconomic and welfare effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-712.
    8. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Population ageing and intertemporal consumption: Representative agent versus social planner," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 485-498, May.
    9. Patrick Laplagne & Maurice Glover & Anthony Shomos, 2007. "Effects of Health and Education on Labour Force Participation," Staff Working Papers 0704, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    10. Rebecca Cassells & Ann Harding & Simon Kelly, 2006. "Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM," NATSEM Working Paper Series 63, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    11. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Richard Eccleston, 2008. "Righting Australia’s Vertical Fiscal Imbalance: Transferring Public Hospital Funding as an Option for Reform," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 39-54.
    13. Douglas, Justin J. & Bartley, Scott W., 1997. "Risk premia in Australian interest rates," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), pages 1-35.
    14. Alan Tapper & Alan Fenna & John Phillimore, 2013. "Age Bias in the Australian Welfare State," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 20(1), pages 5-20.
    15. Prosser, Brenton & Clark, Shannon & Davey, Rachel & Parker, Rhian, 2013. "Developing a public health policy-research nexus: An evaluation of Nurse Practitioner models in aged care," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 55-63.
    16. Christopher Kent & Crystal Ossolinski & Luke Willard, 2007. "The Rise of Household Indebtedness," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.),The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
    18. Garry F. Barrett & Yi-Ping Tseng, 2008. "Retirement Saving in Australia," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 34(s1), pages 177-193, November.
    19. Y. TAMSAMANI, Yasser, 2017. "L’évolution des dépenses de santé au Maroc : une analyse des déterminants démographiques et macro-économiques [The Evolution of the Health Expenditures in Morocco: A Demographics and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 83996, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jan 2018.
    20. Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 235, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Callander, Emily Joy & Schofield, Deborah J. & Shrestha, Rupendra N., 2011. "Multi-dimensional poverty in Australia and the barriers ill health imposes on the employment of the disadvantaged," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 736-742.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy framework; current account; fiscal effects of ageing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2005_4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The Treasury (Commonwealth of Australia) (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/trgovau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.