IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cop/wpaper/g-172.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the Economic Effects of Population Ageing

Author

Listed:
  • James Giesecke
  • G.A. Meagher

Abstract

In March 2005, the Productivity Commission released a report on the Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia. The report describes projections for a number of economic variables including population, labour force participation rates, labour supply, employment and hours worked per week. The present paper describes a number of simulations with the MONASH model designed to extend the range of the Commission's earlier analysis. The first is a base case forecast for the Australian economy for the twenty-year period 2004-05 to 2024-25. As far as possible, it is specified so as to maintain consistency with the Commission's projections. The others are alternative forecasts for the same period in which various effects of population ageing have been removed. The alternative forecasts separately identify a taste effect due to the removal of age-related shifts in the commodity composition of household consumption, a public effect due to the removal of age-related shifts in public consumption, a skill effect due to the removal of age-related shifts in hours of employment distinguished by skill (with total hours of employment unchanged), a scale effect due to the removal of age-related shifts in total hours of employment (with the skill composition of employment unchanged), and a total effect due to the simultaneous removal of all the above age-related shifts. To accommodate the simulations, the MONASH model itself is reconfigured such that labour by qualification group can be converted into labour by occupation according to Constant Elasticity Transformation (CET) functions. Labour by occupation in its turn can be converted into effective units of industry-specific labour according to Constant Elasticity Substitution (CES) functions. Labour of a partcular skill is then distributed between occupations and industries according to relative wage rates. The scheme incorporates 67 qualification groups, 81 occupations (the ASCO minor groups) and 107 industries (the input-output classification).

Suggested Citation

  • James Giesecke & G.A. Meagher, 2008. "Modelling the Economic Effects of Population Ageing," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-172, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/g-172.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2008-02
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/g-172.htm
    File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Adams, Philip D. & Tran, Nhi H. & Giesecke, James A., 2015. "Forecasts of Future Labour Market Requirements for Oman: An Application of the OMAGE model," Conference papers 332577, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Sarris, Alexander, 2009. "Evolving Structure of World Agricultural Trade and Requirements for New World Trade Rules," Conference papers 331831, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2016. "Superannuation and Macroeconomic Growth and Stability," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-267, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    5. Jason Nassios & James A. Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2016. "A modelling framework for analysing the role of superannuation in Australia's financial system," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-266, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Tony Meagher & James Giesecke, 2008. "Population Ageing and Structural Adjustment," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 11(3), pages 227-247.
    7. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    computable general equilibrium modelling; population ageing; labour market forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Horridge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.