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The Effect of Negative Equity on Mortgage Default: Evidence From HAMP’s Principal Reduction Alternative

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  • Therese C. Scharlemann
  • Stephen H. Shore

Abstract

The Home Affordable Modification Program’s (HAMP’s) Principal Reduction Alternative (PRA) is a government-sponsored program to reduce the principal balances and monthly mortgage payments of troubled borrowers. We examine the effect of principal forgiveness on borrowers’ subsequent mortgage default. The program’s rules imply a kink in the relationship between principal forgiveness and a borrower’s initial equity level. Our identification strategy exploits the quasi-experimental variation in principal forgiveness generated by this kink using a regression kink design (RKD), which compares the relationship between initial equity and default on either side of the kink. We estimate that HAMP PRA reduced the quarterly default hazard from $3.8\%$ to $3.1\%$.Received February 4, 2015; accepted August 2, 2015 by Editor Philip Strahan.

Suggested Citation

  • Therese C. Scharlemann & Stephen H. Shore, 2016. "The Effect of Negative Equity on Mortgage Default: Evidence From HAMP’s Principal Reduction Alternative," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2850-2883.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:29:y:2016:i:10:p:2850-2883.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhw034
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    Cited by:

    1. Lara Loewenstein & Bezankeng Njinju, 2022. "Mortgage Borrowers’ Use of COVID-19 Forbearance Programs," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(11), pages 1-7, August.
    2. Benjamin Dennis, 2023. "Household, Bank, and Insurer Exposure to Miami Hurricanes: a flow-of-risk analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Joshua Abel & Andreas Fuster, 2021. "How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? Evidence from HARP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 254-291, April.
    4. Busaba, Walid Y. & Restrepo, Felipe, 2022. "The “7% solution” and IPO (under)pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 953-971.
    5. Aydin, Deniz, 2021. "Forbearance, Interest Rates, and Present-Value Effects in a Randomized Debt Relief Experiment," EconStor Preprints 248467, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Adam M Guren & Timothy J McQuade, 2020. "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1331-1364.
    7. Nika Lazaryan & Urvi Neelakantan, 2016. "Monetary Incentives and Mortgage Renegotiation Outcomes," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 147-168.
    8. Alvaro Mezza & Daniel R. Ringo & Kamila Sommer, 2021. "Student Loans, Access to Credit and Consumer Financial Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Cóndor Richard, 2021. "Evaluating the Effects of the Home Affordable Modification Program," Working Papers 2021-08, Banco de México.
    10. Aydin, Deniz, 2023. "Forbearance vs. Interest Rates: Tests of Liquidity and Strategic Default Triggers in a Randomized Debt Relief Experiment," EconStor Research Reports 268646, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Ganduri, Rohan & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2024. "Do property rehabs affect neighboring property prices?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. McCann, Fergal & O'Malley, Terry, 2020. "Resolving mortgage distress after COVID-19: some lessons from the last crisis," Financial Stability Notes 7/FS/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Cookson, J. Anthony & Gilje, Erik P. & Heimer, Rawley Z., 2022. "Shale shocked: Cash windfalls and household debt repayment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 905-931.
    14. J. Anthony Cookson & Erik P. Gilje & Rawley Z. Heimer, 2020. "Shale Shocked: Cash Windfalls and Household Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 27782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Stephanie Moulton & Yung Chun & Stephanie Casey Pierce & Roberto Quercia & Sarah Riley & Holly Holtzen, 2022. "Does Temporary Mortgage Assistance for Unemployed Homeowners Reduce Longer‐Term Mortgage Default? An Analysis of the Hardest Hit Fund Program," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 515-551, March.
    16. Sumit Agarwal & Slava Mikhed & Barry Scholnick & Man Zhang, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Default in a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 21-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. Kim, You Suk & Lee, Donghoon & Scharlemann, Tess & Vickery, James, 2024. "Intermediation frictions in debt relief: Evidence from CARES Act forbearance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2023. "COVID-19 and housing prices: evidence from U.S. county-level data," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 43(2), pages 241-263, August.

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