IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2023-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Household, Bank, and Insurer Exposure to Miami Hurricanes: a flow-of-risk analysis

Author

Abstract

We analyze possible future financial losses in the event of hurricane damage to Miami residential real estate, where the hurricane's destructiveness reflects climate-change. We focus on three scenarios: (i) a business-as-usual scenario, (ii) a Hurricane-Ian-spillovers scenario, and (iii) a cautious-markets scenario. We quantify bank exposures and loss rates, where exposures are proportional to the size of real estate markets and loss rates depend on post-hurricane devaluations and insurance coverage. This quantitative methodology could complement modeling of local economy impacts, stress on public finances, asset market losses, and other financial developments that will also affect banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Dennis, 2023. "Household, Bank, and Insurer Exposure to Miami Hurricanes: a flow-of-risk analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-13
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2023013pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2023.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "Expected Costs of Damage From Hurricane Winds and Storm-Related Flooding," Reports 55019, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Casto Montero Kuscevic, 2014. "Okun’s law and urban spillovers in US unemployment," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(3), pages 719-730, November.
    3. Painter, Marcus, 2020. "An inconvenient cost: The effects of climate change on municipal bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 468-482.
    4. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    5. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The Value of Foreclosed Property," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 193-214, January.
    6. Therese C. Scharlemann & Stephen H. Shore, 2016. "The Effect of Negative Equity on Mortgage Default: Evidence From HAMP’s Principal Reduction Alternative," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2850-2883.
    7. Steven A. McAlpine & Jeremy R. Porter, 2018. "Estimating Recent Local Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Current Real-Estate Losses: A Housing Market Case Study in Miami-Dade, Florida," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 871-895, December.
    8. Jesse M. Keenan & Jacob T. Bradt, 2020. "Underwaterwriting: from theory to empiricism in regional mortgage markets in the U.S," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2043-2067, October.
    9. Martin L. Weitzman, 2011. "Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(2), pages 275-292, Summer.
    10. Markus Baldauf & Lorenzo Garlappi & Constantine Yannelis & José Scheinkman, 2020. "Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Only If You Believe In It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1256-1295.
    11. W. Scott Frame, 2010. "Estimating the effect of mortgage foreclosures on nearby property values: a critical review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 95(3).
    12. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Daniel Murphy, 2019. "Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States," NBER Working Papers 25457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Batten,, Sandra & Sowerbutts, Rhiannon & Tanaka, Misa, 2016. "Let’s talk about the weather: the impact of climate change on central banks," Bank of England working papers 603, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Dennis, 2022. "Climate Change and Financial Policy: A Literature Review," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Kakuho Furukawa & Hibiki Ichiue & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Interact with the Financial System? A Survey," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    3. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Mulder, Philip, 2021. "What's at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," RFF Working Paper Series 21-25, Resources for the Future.
    4. Duc Duy Nguyen & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi & Vathunyoo Sila, 2022. "Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit [Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1509-1549.
    5. Degryse, Hans & Goncharenko, Roman & Theunisz, Carola & Vadasz, Tamas, 2023. "When green meets green," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Manthos D. Delis & Kathrin de Greiff & Maria Iosifidi & Steven Ongena, 2024. "Being stranded with fossil fuel reserves? Climate policy risk and the pricing of bank loans," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 239-265, August.
    7. Andrew Kirby, 2022. "The Right to Make Mistakes? The Limits to Adaptive Planning for Climate Change," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, June.
    8. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Johannes Stroebel, 2021. "Climate Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 15-36, November.
    9. Lynn M. Fisher & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul Willen, 2015. "The Role of Proximity in Foreclosure Externalities: Evidence from Condominiums," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 119-140, February.
    10. Chen, Zhenzhu & Li, Li & Tang, Yao, 2024. "Weather, credit, and economic fluctuations: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 406-422.
    11. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2022. "Dissecting green returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 403-424.
    12. Ströbel, Johannes & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2021. "What do you think about climate finance?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Olovsson, Conny & Popov, Alexander & Porcellacchia, Davide & Schepens, Glenn, 2023. "The climate and the economy," Working Paper Series 2793, European Central Bank.
    14. Weiran Huang & Ashlyn Nelson & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "Foreclosure Spillovers within Broad Neighborhoods," Working Papers 2018-096, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    15. Kristopher Gerardi & Eric Rosenblatt & Paul S. Willen & Vincent W. Yao, 2012. "Foreclosure externalities: some new evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Nori Tarui & Seth Urbanski & Quang Loc Lam & Makena Coffman & Conrad Newfield, 2023. "Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-21, September.
    17. Bernard, René & Tzamourani, Panagiota & Weber, Michael, 2022. "Climate change and individual behavior," Discussion Papers 01/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Adam M Guren & Timothy J McQuade, 2020. "How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1331-1364.
    19. Daewoung Choi & Yong Kyu Gam & Hojong Shin, 2023. "Environmental reputation and bank liquidity: Evidence from climate transition," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(7-8), pages 1274-1304, July.
    20. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate-related risk; Financial stability; Flow of risk; Real estate loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.