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Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence From the Food Stamps Program

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  • Martha J Bailey
  • Hilary Hoynes
  • Maya Rossin-Slater
  • Reed Walker

Abstract

We use novel, large-scale data on 17.5 million Americans to study how a policy-driven increase in economic resources affects children's long-term outcomes. Using the 2000 Census and 2001–13 American Community Survey linked to the Social Security Administration's NUMIDENT, we leverage the county-level rollout of the Food Stamps program between 1961 and 1975. We find that children with access to greater economic resources before age five have better outcomes as adults. The treatment-on-the-treated effects show a 6% of a standard deviation improvement in human capital, 3% of a standard deviation increase in economic self-sufficiency, 8% of a standard deviation increase in the quality of neighbourhood of residence, a 1.2-year increase in life expectancy, and a 0.5 percentage-point decrease in likelihood of being incarcerated. These estimates suggest that Food Stamps’ transfer of resources to families is a highly cost-effective investment in young children, yielding a marginal value of public funds of approximately sixty-two.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha J Bailey & Hilary Hoynes & Maya Rossin-Slater & Reed Walker, 2024. "Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence From the Food Stamps Program," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(3), pages 1291-1330.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:91:y:2024:i:3:p:1291-1330.
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    4. Rema Hanna & Benjamin A Olken & Elan Satriawan & Sudarno Sumarto & Abhijit Banerjee, "undated". "Pangan versus Kupon Makanan: Bukti dari Eksperimen Berskala Besar di Indonesia," Working Papers 3537, Publications Department.
    5. Ahammer, Alexander & Packham, Analisa, 2023. "Effects of unemployment insurance duration on mental and physical health," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    6. Bastian, Jacob E. & Black, Dan A., 2024. "Relaxing financial constraints with tax credits and migrating out of rural and distressed America," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    7. Libertad González & Sofia Trommlerová, 2021. "Prenatal Transfers and Infant Health: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 1261, Barcelona School of Economics.
    8. Jonathan Colmer & John Voorheis, 2020. "The Grandkids Aren't Alright: The Intergenerational Effects of Prenatal Pollution Exposure," Working Papers 20-36, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    9. Britta Rude, 2022. "Can We Grow with our Children? The Effects of a Comprehensive Early Childhood Development Program," ifo Working Paper Series 372, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Duque, Valentina & Schmitz, Lauren L., 2020. "The Influence of Early-life Economic Shocks on Long-term Outcomes: Evidence from the U.S. Great Depression," Working Papers 2020-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    11. Servaas van der Berg & Linda Zuze & Grace Bridgman, 2020. "The impact of the Coronavirus and lockdown on children's welfare in South Africa: Evidence from NIDS-CRAM Wave 1," Working Papers 24/2020, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Paul Gertler & Tadeja Gracner, 2022. "The Sweet Life: The Long-Term Effects of a Sugar-Rich Early Childhood," NBER Working Papers 30799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Britta Rude, 2022. "Middle-run Impacts of Comprehensive Early Childhood Interventions: Evidence from a Pioneer Program in Chile," ifo Working Paper Series 384, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Esra Kose & Siobhan M. O'Keefe & Maria Rosales-Rueda, 2022. "Does the Delivery of Primary Health Care Improve Birth Outcomes? Evidence from the Rollout of Community Health Centers," NBER Working Papers 30047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Jales, Hugo B. & Liu, Judith & Wilson, Norbert L., 2023. "Moving Policies Toward Racial and Ethnic Equality: The Case of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1272, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Libertad González Luna & Sofia Trommlerová, 2021. "Prenatal transfers and infant health: Evidence from Spain," Economics Working Papers 1783, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Joshua D. Gottlieb & Maria Polyakova & Kevin Rinz & Hugh Shiplett & Victoria Udalova, 2023. "Who Values Human Capitalists' Human Capital? The Earnings and Labor Supply of U.S. Physicians," NBER Working Papers 31469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jason B. Cook & Chloe N. East, 2023. "The Effect of Means-Tested Transfers on Work: Evidence from Quasi-Randomly Assigned SNAP Caseworkers," NBER Working Papers 31307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Joseph Mullins, 2022. "Designing Cash Transfers in the Presence of Children's Human Capital Formation," Working Papers 2022-019, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    20. Joshua D. Gottlieb & Maria Polyakova & Kevin Rinz & Hugh Shiplett & Victoria Udalova, 2020. "Who Values Human Capitalists' Human Capital? Healthcare Spending and Physician Earnings," Working Papers 20-23, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social safety net; Food Stamps; Long-run;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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