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Financial liberalization, structural change, and real exchange rate appreciations

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  • Meza, Felipe
  • Urrutia, Carlos

Abstract

The last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies. The case of Mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non-tradable sector. We account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces: (i) A decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets, and (ii) differential productivity growth across sectors. These two mechanisms account together for 60% of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in Mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors. The decline in the interest rate faced by Mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel. Our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Meza, Felipe & Urrutia, Carlos, 2011. "Financial liberalization, structural change, and real exchange rate appreciations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 317-328.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:85:y:2011:i:2:p:317-328
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.06.001
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    1. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2012. "Financial Frictions and Total Factor Productivity: Accounting for the Real Effects of Financial Crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 336-358, July.
    2. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    3. Emilio Espino & Martín González Rozada, 2015. "On the Implications of Taxation for Investment, Savings and Growth: Evidence from Brazil, Chile and Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 89116, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Huang, Yiping & Ji, Yang, 2017. "How will financial liberalization change the Chinese economy? Lessons from middle-income countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-45.
    5. Pedro Gete, 2015. "Housing demands, savings gluts and current account dynamics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Leoni, Patrick L., 2013. "Pandemics of the poor and banking stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4574-4583.
    7. Gabriela Cugat, 2019. "Emerging markets, household heterogeneity, and exchange rate policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 526, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Beker, Victor A., 2012. "A case study on trade liberalization: Argentina in the 1990s," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "The costs of rebalancing the China-US co-dependency," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 120(1), pages 59-106.
    10. Guven, Cahit, 2016. "Financial integration: The role of tradable and non-tradable goods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 345-353.
    11. Guyot, Alexis & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2014. "Foreign shocks and international cost of equity destabilization. Evidence from the MENA region," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 101-122.
    12. Gete, Pedro, 2020. "Expectations and the housing boom and bust. An open economy view," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Carlos Villalobos Barría & Stephan Klasen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2016. "The Distribution Dynamics of Human Development in Mexico 1990–2010," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(S1), pages 47-67, August.
    14. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
    15. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2015. "Investment and the real exchange rate's profitability channel in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 716-739, September.
    16. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Capital Flows and Private Investment in Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(3, Cierre), pages 65-99.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; Financial liberalization; Structural transformation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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