IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/oxford/v37y2021i1p113-131..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demographic change and regional labour markets

Author

Listed:
  • Michael J Böhm
  • Terry Gregory
  • Pamela Qendrai
  • Christian Siegel

Abstract

Like many other countries, Germany has experienced rapid population and workforce ageing, yet with substantial variation across regions. In this paper we first use this spatial variation between 1975 and 2014 to estimate quasi-causal supply effects of ageing on regional labour market outcomes, drawing on the identification strategy of Böhm and Siegel (2020). We find in our panel of German labour market regions that workforce mean age has considerable negative effects on the wage returns to age. We also obtain suggestive evidence that relative employment rates of older workers decline when mean age rises. A decomposition of the heterogeneous regional trends using our estimates shows that ageing of rural regions is mainly driven by supply (reflecting local population dynamics) whereas urban ageing is driven by demand (reflecting responses to economic conditions). We discuss the differential implications of these drivers for regional policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J Böhm & Terry Gregory & Pamela Qendrai & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Demographic change and regional labour markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 113-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:37:y:2021:i:1:p:113-131.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/graa063
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    2. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Siegel, Christian, 2020. "Biased technological change and employment reallocation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Adam Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "What Do We Learn from Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 175-223.
    4. repec:iab:iabfme:200502(en is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    6. Rohrbach-Schmidt, Daniela & Tiemann, Michael, 2013. "Changes in workplace tasks in Germany : evaluating skill and task measures," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 46(3), pages 215-237.
    7. Terry Gregory & Roberto Patuelli, 2015. "Demographic ageing and the polarization of regions—an exploratory space–time analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 47(5), pages 1192-1210, May.
    8. Michael J. Böhm & Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Felix Schran, 2024. "Occupation Growth, Skill Prices, and Wage Inequality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 201-243.
    9. Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Robert Völter, 2006. "Imputation Rules to Improve the Education Variable in the IAB Employment Subsample," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(3), pages 405-436.
    10. Daniel F Heuermann & Johannes F Schmieder, 2019. "The effect of infrastructure on worker mobility: evidence from high-speed rail expansion in Germany," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 335-372.
    11. Enrico Moretti, 2014. "Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies, and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authority," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 275-331.
    12. Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Robert Völter, 2006. "Imputation Rules to Improve the Education Variable in the IAB Employment Subsample," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(3), pages 405-436.
    13. repec:iab:iabfme:200503(en is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Michael J. Böhm & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Make Yourselves Scarce: The Effect Of Demographic Change On The Relative Wages And Employment Rates Of Experienced Workers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1537-1568, November.
    15. Gartner, Hermann, 2005. "The imputation of wages above the contribution limit with the German IAB employment sample," FDZ Methodenreport 200502_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Daniela Rohrbach-Schmidt & Michael Tiemann, 2013. "Changes in workplace tasks in Germany—evaluating skill and task measures [Wandel der Tätigkeiten am Arbeitsplatz in Deutschland – Analysen von Skill und Task-Maßen]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 46(3), pages 215-237, September.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4t83lre9hm91sq006n4940n19s is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Fackler & Michaela Fuchs & Lisa Hölscher & Claus Schnabel, 2019. "Do Start-ups Provide Employment Opportunities for Disadvantaged Workers?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(5), pages 1123-1148, October.
    2. Herbert Brücker & Elke J. Jahn, 2011. "Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113, pages 286-317, June.
    3. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    4. Anna Gumpert & Henrike Steimer & Manfred Antoni, 2023. "Firm Organization with Multiple Establishments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(2), pages 1091-1138.
    5. Reinhold, Mario & Thomsen, Stephan L., 2017. "The changing situation of labor market entrants in Germany : a long-run analysis of wages and occupational patterns," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 50(1), pages 161-174.
    6. Arntz, Melanie & Lipowski, Cäcilia & Neidhöfer, Guido & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "Computers as stepping stones? Technological change and equality of labor market opportunities," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-014, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Graetz, Georg, 2020. "Technological change and the Swedish labor market," Working Paper Series 2020:19, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    8. Gabriela Galassi, 2021. "Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform," Staff Working Papers 21-15, Bank of Canada.
    9. Eduard Storm, 2022. "Task specialization and the Native‐Foreign Wage Gap," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(2), pages 167-195, June.
    10. Koomen, Miriam & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2022. "Occupational Tasks and Wage Inequality in Germany: A Decomposition Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 15702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Brüll, Eduard & Gathmann, Christina, 2020. "Evolution of the East German wage structure," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-081, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Galassi, Gabriela, 2021. "Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 14248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Möller, Joachim & Eppelsheimer, Johann, 2016. "The Wage Effects of Regional Brain Gain and Brain Drain Revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145506, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Eppelsheimer, Johann & Jahn, Elke J. & Rust, Christoph, 2022. "The spatial decay of human capital externalities - A functional regression approach with precise geo-referenced data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    15. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    16. Antje Mertens & Laura Romeu-Gordo, 2023. "Retirement in Western Germany – How Workplace Tasks Influence Its Timing," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 37(2), pages 467-485, April.
    17. Pfister, Mona & Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas, 2018. "Calculation of pension entitlements in the sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB)," FDZ Methodenreport 201801_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    18. Martin Kroczek, 2021. "Analyzing Nurses‘ Decisions to Leave Their Profession – a Duration Analysis," IAW Discussion Papers 136, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    19. Haan, Peter & Tolan, Songül, 2019. "Labor supply and fiscal effects of partial retirement – The role of entry age and the timing of pension benefits," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    20. Silvia Vannutelli & Sergio Scicchitano & Marco Biagetti, 2022. "Routine-biased technological change and wage inequality: do workers’ perceptions matter?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 409-450, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ageing; demographic change; regional differences; wage returns to age;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:37:y:2021:i:1:p:113-131.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/oxrep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.